Hazards SEES Type 2: Preventing Flood Hazards from Becoming Disasters through Two-Way Communication of Parcel-Level Flood Risk

该项目旨在了解哪些因素和条件允许城市洪水的地块级预测，以促进洪水脆弱社区的行为变化。据推测，一个包裹级洪水预测模型，再加上变革性的沟通策略，是一个更强大的工具，让人们了解脆弱性，可视化洪水风险，并计划未来的危害比粗层次的建模通过单一的灾难叙述。为了验证这一假设，本项目重点研究了南加州两个最大的河口系统，该地区的大洪水造成的损失预计将大于相同概率的大地震造成的损失，国家海平面上升研究指出，该地区是最有可能遭受洪水增加的地区之一。该项目召集了一个由研究人员和广泛的利益相关者和合作伙伴组成的跨学科团队，以了解促进行为变化所需的洪水风险信息类型，调查和测试沟通策略，确定可以实施的干预措施，以建立社区复原力和减轻预期的洪水损失，并模拟这些干预措施如何影响洪水灾害及其预期影响。几十年来，科学家们一直试图描述他们对气候变化的了解，并将其转化为可操作的信息。从大多数指标来看，这一努力都失败了。排放量继续增加，气候变化的影响正在跟踪最坏的情况，对气候变化的怀疑达到了历史最高水平。对气候变化科学的不良反应与研究相一致，研究表明，自上而下的信息交流往往是抽象的，超出了受众的直接体验，往往对行为影响甚微。该项目促进创新的跨学科科学，为洪水恢复能力建立广泛的知识基础，阐明了一种战略，更有效地将气候科学转化为可操作的信息，以促进行为变化，并促进对包裹级洪水数据是否以及在多大程度上有助于提高洪水恢复能力的社区的理解。具体而言，该项目还：1）通过旨在转让知识、促进双向沟通和评估抗灾能力的合作研讨会培训灾害从业人员; 2）通过针对基础设施适应、应急准备和应对以及政策的有针对性的建议，为当地气候行动规划提供信息; 3）向国家和全球气候行动规划者和跨学科灾害研究人员提供经验教训;（4）通过专门的本科生和研究生教育方案培训新出现的灾害问题学者;（5）制定和提供关于洪水教育的高中教师培训;（6）为脆弱社区的成年人提供双语教育;（7）创建一个项目网站，向外部受众传播研究成果和教育材料; 8）通过鼓励在国家安全和发展援助范围内将该模型应用于其他易受洪水影响的地区，为国家安全提供信息。

This project seeks to understand what factors and conditions allow parcel-level prediction of urban flooding to catalyze behavioral change in flood vulnerable communities. It is hypothesized that a parcel-level flood prediction model, coupled with transformative communication strategies, is a more powerful tool for people to understand vulnerability, visualize flood risk, and plan for future hazards than coarse-level modeling conveyed via a singular disaster narrative. To test this hypothesis, this project focuses on the two largest estuarine systems in Southern California, a region where the damages from a major flood are expected to be greater than from a major earthquake of the same probability, and one to which national sea level rise studies point as being among the most likely to experience increased flooding. The project convenes an interdisciplinary team of researchers and a broad range of stakeholders and partners to understand the type of flood risk information that is needed to catalyze behavioral change, investigate and test communication strategies, identify interventions that can be implemented to build community resilience and mitigate expected flood losses, and model how these interventions would affect the flood hazard and its expected impacts. For decades scientists have tried to characterize what they know about climate change and translate it into actionable information. By most metrics, this effort has failed. Emissions continue to increase, climate change impacts are tracking worst-case scenarios, and skepticism about climate change is at an all time high. The poor response to climate change science is consonant with research that shows that top down communication of information that is often abstract and outside the immediate experience of the audience tends to have very little impact on behavior. This project fosters innovative interdisciplinary science that builds a broad knowledge base for flood resilience, articulates a strategy for more effectively translating climate science into actionable information to catalyze behavioral change, and advances understanding of whether, and to what extent, parcel-level flood data can contribute to more flood resilient communities. Specifically, this project also: 1) trains hazard practitioners through collaborative workshops designed to transfer knowledge, facilitate two-way communication, and evaluate resilience options; 2) informs local climate action planning through targeted recommendations for infrastructure adaptation, emergency preparedness and response, and policy; 3) delivers lessons learned to national and global climate action planners and interdisciplinary hazards researchers; 4) trains emerging hazards scholars through a specialized undergraduate and graduate education program; 5) develops and delivers high school teacher training on flood education and 6) provides bilingual education for adults in vulnerable communities; 7) creates a project website to communicate research and disseminate education materials to external audiences; and 8) informs national security by encouraging the model's application to other flood-vulnerable locales within the national security and development assistance purview.