Hazards SEES Type 2: Preventing Flood Hazards from Becoming Disasters through Two-Way Communication of Parcel-Level Flood Risk

该项目旨在了解哪些因素和条件允许对城市洪水进行包级预测，从而促进易受洪水影响社区的行为改变。据推测，一个包裹级的洪水预测模型，加上变革性的沟通策略，是一个更强大的工具，让人们了解脆弱性，可视化洪水风险，并计划未来的危害，而不是通过单一的灾难叙事传达的粗糙级别的建模。为了验证这一假设，该项目将重点放在南加州的两个最大的河口系统上，一个地区的大洪水造成的破坏预计将大于相同概率的大地震，一个国家海平面上升研究指出是最可能经历洪水增加的地区之一。该项目召集了一个跨学科的研究人员团队和广泛的利益相关者和合作伙伴，以了解促进行为变化所需的洪水风险信息类型，调查和测试沟通策略，确定可以实施的干预措施，以建立社区恢复力和减轻预期的洪水损失，并建立这些干预措施将如何影响洪水危害及其预期影响的模型。几十年来，科学家们一直试图描述他们对气候变化的了解，并将其转化为可操作的信息。从大多数指标来看，这一努力都失败了。排放继续增加，气候变化的影响正在追踪最坏的情况，对气候变化的怀疑正处于历史最高水平。对气候变化科学的不良反应与研究一致，研究表明，自上而下的信息交流往往是抽象的，超出了受众的直接体验，往往对行为影响很小。该项目促进创新的跨学科科学，为抗洪能力建立广泛的知识基础，阐明了更有效地将气候科学转化为可操作信息以促进行为改变的战略，并促进了对包级洪水数据是否以及在多大程度上有助于提高抗洪能力的社区的理解。具体而言，该项目还包括：1)通过合作研讨会培训灾害从业人员，旨在传授知识，促进双向沟通，并评估弹性方案；2)通过有针对性的基础设施适应、应急准备和响应以及政策建议，为地方气候行动规划提供信息；3)向国家和全球气候行动规划者和跨学科危害研究人员提供经验教训；4)通过专门的本科和研究生教育项目培养新兴灾害学者；5)开发和提供高中教师洪水教育培训；6)为弱势社区的成年人提供双语教育；7)创建一个项目网站，向外部受众传播研究和教育材料；8)通过鼓励将该模型应用于国家安全和发展援助范围内的其他洪水易发地区，为国家安全提供信息。

This project seeks to understand what factors and conditions allow parcel-level prediction of urban flooding to catalyze behavioral change in flood vulnerable communities. It is hypothesized that a parcel-level flood prediction model, coupled with transformative communication strategies, is a more powerful tool for people to understand vulnerability, visualize flood risk, and plan for future hazards than coarse-level modeling conveyed via a singular disaster narrative. To test this hypothesis, this project focuses on the two largest estuarine systems in Southern California, a region where the damages from a major flood are expected to be greater than from a major earthquake of the same probability, and one to which national sea level rise studies point as being among the most likely to experience increased flooding. The project convenes an interdisciplinary team of researchers and a broad range of stakeholders and partners to understand the type of flood risk information that is needed to catalyze behavioral change, investigate and test communication strategies, identify interventions that can be implemented to build community resilience and mitigate expected flood losses, and model how these interventions would affect the flood hazard and its expected impacts. For decades scientists have tried to characterize what they know about climate change and translate it into actionable information. By most metrics, this effort has failed. Emissions continue to increase, climate change impacts are tracking worst-case scenarios, and skepticism about climate change is at an all time high. The poor response to climate change science is consonant with research that shows that top down communication of information that is often abstract and outside the immediate experience of the audience tends to have very little impact on behavior. This project fosters innovative interdisciplinary science that builds a broad knowledge base for flood resilience, articulates a strategy for more effectively translating climate science into actionable information to catalyze behavioral change, and advances understanding of whether, and to what extent, parcel-level flood data can contribute to more flood resilient communities. Specifically, this project also: 1) trains hazard practitioners through collaborative workshops designed to transfer knowledge, facilitate two-way communication, and evaluate resilience options; 2) informs local climate action planning through targeted recommendations for infrastructure adaptation, emergency preparedness and response, and policy; 3) delivers lessons learned to national and global climate action planners and interdisciplinary hazards researchers; 4) trains emerging hazards scholars through a specialized undergraduate and graduate education program; 5) develops and delivers high school teacher training on flood education and 6) provides bilingual education for adults in vulnerable communities; 7) creates a project website to communicate research and disseminate education materials to external audiences; and 8) informs national security by encouraging the model's application to other flood-vulnerable locales within the national security and development assistance purview.