Hazards SEES Type 1: End-to-End Development of Time-Dependent Geo-targeted Alerts and Warnings Enabled by Dense Observations of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

危害 SEES 类型 1：通过对 2011 年东北海啸的密集观测实现依赖时间的地理目标警报和警告的端到端开发

• 批准号: 1331600
• 负责人: Jean-Paul Ampuero
• 金额: $ 29.99万
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-10-01 至 2016-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331600&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hazards; SEES; Type; End; Development

Technical Description of Project:New tsunami/earthquake research in seismology and civil engineering will be combined with findings from empirical social science research on public responses to warnings to develop enhanced tsunami warning messages in order to improve appropriate protective action taking among members of the public. This project will focus on the 2011 Tohoku tsunami data to show how messages can be developed that increase the specificity of geo-location, time to impact, and hazard impact, and integrate into the tsunami warning system. In 2011, a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges off southern California recorded the Tohoku tsunami with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The tsunami data, together with numerical modeling, will be used to characterize the physical sources (e.g., standing waves in the source region and large-scale bathymetric structures between source and receivers) of multiple large-amplitude wave arrivals that make tsunamis a long-duration, time-dependent, location-dependent hazard. A primary product that will result from validation of the simulations with the pressure gauge data will be the ability to determine which waveform features are important for alert and warning message content. From the analyses, tsunami hazard prediction models will be refined in ways that have a bearing on public risk communication under times of imminent threat. Numerical simulation and data processing results from the dense pressure gauge array of 2011 tsunami data, as well as NOAA DART and coastal tide gauge data, will be used to increase warning message specificity by capitalizing on social science knowledge of public behavior to hazard warnings. Projects Broader Significance and ImportanceThe interdisciplinary research proposed here extends well beyond the traditional venues of each individual field represented by the PIs. To complement this effort, an advisory team made up of technical experts and emergency managers in the U.S. will be formed. This group of experts will guide the work, providing focus on how the new modeling results can inform the development of alert and warning messages that take into account tsunami observations illustrated in the new data sources. Collaborations with relevant emergency managers, seismologists and civil engineers in Caribbean and South American countries will also be established. Graduate and undergraduate students drawn from diverse student bodies will be involved in the data analysis as part of their thesis and independent project work. By applying breakthroughs in tsunami science and modeling to tsunami warning messages, and demonstrating the effectiveness of enhanced message specificity, this research has the potential to affect public protective action response and to ultimately reduce losses and save lives.

项目技术说明：地震学和土木工程方面的新海啸/地震研究将与关于公众对警报反应的实证社会科学研究结果相结合，以制定增强的海啸警报信息，从而改善公众采取的适当保护行动。该项目将侧重于2011年东北海啸数据，以显示如何开发信息，增加地理位置、影响时间和灾害影响的具体性，并将其纳入海啸预警系统。2011年，加州南部海域密集的海底压力计阵列以前所未有的空间和时间分辨率记录了东北海啸。海啸数据和数值模拟将用于描述物理源（例如，（例如，震源区的驻波和震源与接收器之间的大型测深结构），这些结构是多次大振幅波到达的结果，使海啸成为一种持续时间长、随时间而变、随地点而变的灾害。使用压力计数据验证模拟的主要结果是能够确定哪些波形特征对警报和警告消息内容很重要。根据这些分析，海啸灾害预测模型将得到改进，以便在威胁迫在眉睫的情况下对公众进行风险宣传。2011年海啸数据的密集压力计阵列的数值模拟和数据处理结果，以及NOAA DART和沿海验潮仪数据，将用于通过利用公众行为的社会科学知识来增加警报信息的具体性。项目更广泛的意义和重要性这里提出的跨学科研究远远超出了PI所代表的每个领域的传统场所。为了补充这一努力，将成立一个由美国技术专家和应急管理人员组成的咨询小组。该专家组将指导工作，重点关注新的建模结果如何为警报和预警信息的制定提供信息，这些信息将新数据源中说明的海啸观测结果考虑在内。还将与加勒比和南美洲国家的有关应急管理人员、地震学家和土木工程师建立合作关系。来自不同学生团体的研究生和本科生将参与数据分析，作为他们论文和独立项目工作的一部分。通过将海啸科学和建模的突破应用于海啸预警信息，并证明增强信息特异性的有效性，这项研究有可能影响公众的保护行动响应，并最终减少损失和拯救生命。