Hazards SEES Type 1: End-to-End Development of Time-Dependent Geo-targeted Alerts and Warnings Enabled by Dense Observations of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

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Technical Description of Project:New tsunami/earthquake research in seismology and civil engineering will be combined with findings from empirical social science research on public responses to warnings to develop enhanced tsunami warning messages in order to improve appropriate protective action taking among members of the public. This project will focus on the 2011 Tohoku tsunami data to show how messages can be developed that increase the specificity of geo-location, time to impact, and hazard impact, and integrate into the tsunami warning system. In 2011, a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges off southern California recorded the Tohoku tsunami with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The tsunami data, together with numerical modeling, will be used to characterize the physical sources (e.g., standing waves in the source region and large-scale bathymetric structures between source and receivers) of multiple large-amplitude wave arrivals that make tsunamis a long-duration, time-dependent, location-dependent hazard. A primary product that will result from validation of the simulations with the pressure gauge data will be the ability to determine which waveform features are important for alert and warning message content. From the analyses, tsunami hazard prediction models will be refined in ways that have a bearing on public risk communication under times of imminent threat. Numerical simulation and data processing results from the dense pressure gauge array of 2011 tsunami data, as well as NOAA DART and coastal tide gauge data, will be used to increase warning message specificity by capitalizing on social science knowledge of public behavior to hazard warnings. Projects Broader Significance and ImportanceThe interdisciplinary research proposed here extends well beyond the traditional venues of each individual field represented by the PIs. To complement this effort, an advisory team made up of technical experts and emergency managers in the U.S. will be formed. This group of experts will guide the work, providing focus on how the new modeling results can inform the development of alert and warning messages that take into account tsunami observations illustrated in the new data sources. Collaborations with relevant emergency managers, seismologists and civil engineers in Caribbean and South American countries will also be established. Graduate and undergraduate students drawn from diverse student bodies will be involved in the data analysis as part of their thesis and independent project work. By applying breakthroughs in tsunami science and modeling to tsunami warning messages, and demonstrating the effectiveness of enhanced message specificity, this research has the potential to affect public protective action response and to ultimately reduce losses and save lives.