Hazards SEES Type 2: Hazard Prediction and Communication Dynamics in the Modern Information Environment

当当今世界面临危险时，信息大量存在。科学预测正在迅速改进，信息和通信技术极大地改变了人们获取、组合和共享信息的方式。然而，现有的灾害准备和预警范例提供的知识和工具有限，无法理解预报和预警信息是如何传达和使用的。为了弥补这一差距，本项目将调查在不断发展的气象预测和现代信息传递系统的背景下，当飓风接近和登陆时，不同来源和类型的信息之间的相互作用如何影响风险解释和行为反应。本项目汇集了计算机和信息科学、大气和相关科学以及社会和行为科学的概念、方法和专业知识，以解决三个研究问题：(1)随着飓风的逼近，关于飓风风险的不断变化的信息如何通过信息系统传播？(2)在现代信息环境中，风险的传播如何减轻或加剧社会对飓风的脆弱性，特别是对最脆弱的公众成员？(3)鉴于科学技术的不断发展，如何改进飓风预报和警报信息及其传播？这些问题将通过整合现实世界的危险信息系统与计算物理和社会建模的研究来调查。研究人员将收集和分析来自社交媒体流、访谈和焦点小组的数据，其中包括对更弱势群体的关注。这项研究将结合高分辨率的整体飓风和风暴潮模型，以及计算实验室的实验，将飓风和风暴潮模型与追求、处理和传输这些信息的社会行动者的基于代理的建模结合起来。这一努力的智力价值既在于每个子学科的基础知识的进步，也在于在学科之间建立新的联系，以解决危害研究中的综合问题。社交媒体、访谈和焦点小组研究将建立对来自数字和非数字领域的不同来源的危害信息如何被访问、组合、解释和采取行动的新认识。这项工作还将通过结合几个领域的理论来研究风险沟通、信息和通信技术以及社会网络如何影响脆弱性和适应能力，从而推进脆弱性科学。相关的天气和风暴潮模型研究将建立对耦合概率飓风和风暴潮预报以及风暴潮在前置时间内的可预测性的基本理解。从该模型的输出中得出的情景将用于开发视觉风险沟通原型，以新的方式结合地理空间物理和社会信息。耦合飓风/基于主体的建模实验将使在受控环境下对信息系统动力学和紧急行为的新探索成为可能。通过跨研究组成部分的整合，该项目将建立对物理科学、社会和行为科学以及以人为本的计算如何联合起来改变灾害风险沟通并帮助防止危害变成灾难的新认识。相对于更广泛的影响而言，本项目的研究结果预计将对天气和风暴潮预报员、公职人员、应急从业人员、媒体人员和公众有实用价值，以改进他们如何创建和传播有关即将来临的飓风风险的信息。这些改进将促使采取行动减少飓风的危害，增强能力，减少脆弱性，并随着时间的推移有助于提高可持续性。这些发现也将适用于其他有一些预测技能的危害。为了促进研究结果的应用，该项目包括与飓风预报、应急管理、媒体和数字志愿者社区的从业伙伴合作。该项目还将交叉培训跨学科方法和方法的高级、博士后研究人员和研究生，帮助建立一支跨学科的劳动力队伍，能够解决灾害恢复能力和可持续性等复杂问题。

When hazards threaten in today's world, information abounds. Scientific predictions are improving rapidly, and information and communication technology has dramatically changed how people access, combine, and share information. Yet existing paradigms for hazard preparedness and warning provide limited knowledge and tools for understanding how forecast and warning information is communicated and used. To address this gap, this project will investigate how interactions among different sources and types of information influence risk interpretations and behavioral responses as a hurricane approaches and comes onshore, in the context of evolving meteorological predictions and modern information-delivery systems. This project brings together concepts, methods, and expertise from computer and information science, atmospheric and related sciences, and social and behavioral sciences to address three research questions: (1) How does evolving information about hurricane risk propagate through the information system as a hurricane approaches? (2) How does communication of risk in the modern information environment alleviate or exacerbate societal vulnerability to hurricanes in general, and of the most vulnerable members of the public in particular?; and (3) Given ongoing developments in science and technology, how can hurricane forecast and warning information and its communication be improved? These questions will be investigated by integrating the study of the real-world hazard information system with computational physical and social modeling. Researchers will collect and analyze data from social media streams, interviews, and focus groups that include an emphasis on more vulnerable populations. This research will be combined with high-resolution ensemble hurricane and storm-surge modeling, as well as experiments in a computational laboratory that couples the hurricane and storm surge modeling with agent-based modeling of social actors who pursue, process, and transmit such information.The intellectual merit of this effort rests both in advancement of fundamental knowledge in each sub-discipline and in forging new connections among disciplines to address integrative questions in hazards research. The social media, interview, and focus group research will build new understanding of how hazard information from different sources, in the digital and non-digital spheres, is accessed, combined, interpreted, and acted upon. This work will also advance vulnerability science by combining theory from several fields to examine how risk communication, information and communication technology, and social networks influence vulnerability and adaptive capacities as a hazard approaches. Associated weather and storm surge modeling research will build fundamental understanding about coupled probabilistic hurricane and storm surge forecasting and the predictability of storm surge across lead times. Scenarios derived from the output of this modeling will be used to develop visual risk communication prototypes that combine geospatial physical and societal information in new ways. Coupled hurricane/agent-based modeling experiments will enable a novel exploration of information system dynamics and emergent behaviors in a controlled setting. Through integration across research components, this project will build new understanding of how physical sciences, social and behavioral sciences, and human-centered computing can join to transform hazard risk communication and help prevent hazards from becoming disasters.Relative to Broader Impacts, findings from this project are expected to be of utility to operational weather and storm surge forecasters, public officials, emergency practitioners, media personnel, and members of the public to improve how they create and communicate information about approaching hurricane risks. These improvements will motivate actions to reduce harm from hurricanes, enhance capacities, reduce vulnerabilities, and over time contribute to increased sustainability. These findings will also be applicable to other hazards for which there is some predictive skill. To promote application of findings, the project includes collaborations with practitioner partners in the hurricane forecasting, emergency management, media, and digital volunteer communities. The project will also cross-train senior and postdoctoral researchers and graduate students in interdisciplinary approaches and methods, helping to build an interdisciplinary workforce capable of solving the complex issues of hazard resilience and sustainability.