Hazards SEES Type 1: End-to-End Development of Time-Dependent Geo-targeted Alerts and Warnings Enabled by Dense Observations of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

项目技术简介：地震学和土木工程领域新的海啸/地震研究将与关于公众对警报的反应的实证社会科学研究的结果相结合，以开发增强的海啸警报信息，以改进公众采取的适当保护行动。该项目将以2011年东北海啸数据为重点，展示如何开发信息，以增加地理位置、影响时间和灾害影响的特殊性，并将其纳入海啸预警系统。2011年，加利福尼亚州南部附近密集的海底压力计以前所未有的空间和时间分辨率记录了东北海啸。海啸数据将与数值模拟一起用于描述多个大幅度波到达的物理来源(例如，震源区的驻波和源与接收器之间的大规模测深结构)，这些波的到达使海啸成为一种持续时间长、依赖于时间和依赖于地点的危险。使用压力表数据验证模拟的主要结果将是能够确定哪些波形特征对于警报和警告消息内容是重要的。通过分析，海啸风险预测模型将得到改进，其方式将与迫在眉睫的威胁时期的公共风险沟通有关。2011年海啸数据密集压力计阵列的数值模拟和数据处理结果，以及美国国家海洋和大气局DART和沿海验潮仪数据，将通过利用公众对危险预警的行为的社会科学知识，来增加预警信息的特异性。项目更广泛的意义和重要性这里提出的跨学科研究远远超出了由个人投资促进机构代表的每个单独领域的传统场所。为了补充这一努力，将成立一个由美国的技术专家和应急管理人员组成的顾问团队。这组专家将指导这项工作，重点放在新的建模结果如何为警报和警报信息的开发提供信息，这些警报和警报信息考虑到新数据来源中所示的海啸观测。还将与加勒比和南美洲国家的相关应急管理人员、地震学家和土木工程师建立合作关系。来自不同学生群体的研究生和本科生将参与数据分析，作为他们论文和独立项目工作的一部分。通过将海啸科学和建模方面的突破应用到海啸警报信息中，并证明增强信息特异性的有效性，这项研究有可能影响公共保护行动的反应，并最终减少损失和拯救生命。

Technical Description of Project:New tsunami/earthquake research in seismology and civil engineering will be combined with findings from empirical social science research on public responses to warnings to develop enhanced tsunami warning messages in order to improve appropriate protective action taking among members of the public. This project will focus on the 2011 Tohoku tsunami data to show how messages can be developed that increase the specificity of geo-location, time to impact, and hazard impact, and integrate into the tsunami warning system. In 2011, a dense array of seafloor pressure gauges off southern California recorded the Tohoku tsunami with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The tsunami data, together with numerical modeling, will be used to characterize the physical sources (e.g., standing waves in the source region and large-scale bathymetric structures between source and receivers) of multiple large-amplitude wave arrivals that make tsunamis a long-duration, time-dependent, location-dependent hazard. A primary product that will result from validation of the simulations with the pressure gauge data will be the ability to determine which waveform features are important for alert and warning message content. From the analyses, tsunami hazard prediction models will be refined in ways that have a bearing on public risk communication under times of imminent threat. Numerical simulation and data processing results from the dense pressure gauge array of 2011 tsunami data, as well as NOAA DART and coastal tide gauge data, will be used to increase warning message specificity by capitalizing on social science knowledge of public behavior to hazard warnings. Projects Broader Significance and ImportanceThe interdisciplinary research proposed here extends well beyond the traditional venues of each individual field represented by the PIs. To complement this effort, an advisory team made up of technical experts and emergency managers in the U.S. will be formed. This group of experts will guide the work, providing focus on how the new modeling results can inform the development of alert and warning messages that take into account tsunami observations illustrated in the new data sources. Collaborations with relevant emergency managers, seismologists and civil engineers in Caribbean and South American countries will also be established. Graduate and undergraduate students drawn from diverse student bodies will be involved in the data analysis as part of their thesis and independent project work. By applying breakthroughs in tsunami science and modeling to tsunami warning messages, and demonstrating the effectiveness of enhanced message specificity, this research has the potential to affect public protective action response and to ultimately reduce losses and save lives.