Hazards SEES Type 2: Next Generation, Resilient Warning Systems for Tornados and Flash Floods

危害 SEES 类型 2：针对龙卷风和山洪的下一代弹性预警系统

• 批准号: 1331572
• 负责人: Brenda Philips
• 金额: $ 283.39万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Amherst
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331572&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Hazards; SEES; Type; Next; Generation

This multi-institution project will design, develop, demonstrate and evaluate next-generation, resilient warning systems for rapid-onset hazards, such as tornadoes and flash floods. Using high spatio-temporal observations and short-term forecasts of lower-atmospheric conditions, this system will deliver user-centric, context-aware forecasts and warnings resulting in significant improvements in public response. Warning systems help mitigate the negative socio-economic impacts of natural hazards such as floods and tornados, which over the past three years caused 2303 injuries, 297 deaths and $8.5 billion in property and crop damages across the United States. As technology and its application evolve, and as our understanding of complex interactions among natural hazards, technology and human behavior improves, warnings must also evolve and change. This effort will develop a systems-level framework and underlying technology, firmly grounded in an understanding of human behavioral response, to leverage these changes to better meet the ultimate goal of improving safety for both people and property.The intellectual merit of this effort centers upon development of new techniques for real-time, high-resolution nowcasts for rain and wind; creation of a new context-sensitive communication architecture for efficiently disseminating user-specific information tailored to various population segments; development and testing of new measures of human behavioral response; creation of a deeper of understanding of myriad influences on public response to weather hazards and warnings; and identification of new ways to link the social and technical components of the warning system. Research results will be integrated into the warning system based on time, space and risk considerations and demonstrated via prototyping next generation warning system concepts. Three key trends will be addressed: i) The rapid increase in ownership of mobile phones in all segments of the population; ii) New high spatiotemporal resolution X-band radar nowcasts (0- 1 hour) that can localize hazard risk and enable operational forecasters and emergency mangers to warn on a neighborhood-scale for tornados and flash floods; iii) New concepts for resilient data-dissemination architectures that enable targeting of weather information by context, such as precise location, or by demographics such as age. Live warning system experiments in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex will provide a unique opportunity to conduct empirical research, validate new technology and theoretical concepts. During severe weather events, high-resolution radar products will be disseminated to NWS forecasters who in turn will disseminate experimental geo-targeted, context-aware real-time warnings to individuals via mobile phones equipped with an app that logs information-seeking activity, communications, location, and movement, and enables post event surveys. Our project leverages the stakeholder partnerships, technology, and socio-technical research practices of the NSF Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) and the GENI infrastructure that enables at-scale research in next-generation networks and applications.Broader impacts of this effort will ultimately include improved public safety and disaster mitigation and potential for applications of developed technology well beyond the Dallas-Fort Worth region.. An advisory board which includes representatives of the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the City of Fort Worth, the National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology and others will enable faster translation of our results into products and services that can be replicated in north Texas, and other parts of the nation. Research on public response addresses an underserved population through our analysis of the Accessible Hazard Alert System for people with visual or hearing impairments. The K-12 education efforts, directed at minority serving institutions, include the creation of a weather programs on safety, informed by our public response research.

这一多机构项目将设计、开发、演示和评估下一代针对龙卷风和山洪等突发灾害的弹性预警系统。该系统将利用高时空观测和低大气层条件短期预报，提供以用户为中心、了解背景的预报和警报，从而大大改善公众反应。预警系统有助于减轻洪水和龙卷风等自然灾害的负面社会经济影响，在过去三年中，这些灾害在美国造成2303人受伤，297人死亡，财产和农作物损失85亿美元。随着技术及其应用的发展，随着我们对自然灾害、技术和人类行为之间复杂相互作用的理解的提高，预警也必须发展和改变。这项工作将发展一个系统级的框架和基本技术，牢固地建立在对人类行为反应的理解的基础上，以利用这些变化更好地实现提高人员和财产安全的最终目标。建立一个新的对环境敏感的通信结构，以有效传播针对不同人口群体的用户信息;制定和测试人类行为反应的新措施;更深入地了解对公众应对天气灾害和警报的各种影响;确定将警报系统的社会和技术组成部分联系起来的新方法。研究结果将根据时间、空间和风险考虑纳入预警系统，并通过下一代预警系统概念原型进行演示。将处理三个主要趋势：㈠各阶层人口拥有移动的电话的人数迅速增加; ㈡新的高时空分辨率X波段雷达即时预报（0- 1小时），可以确定灾害风险，使业务预报员和应急管理人员能够在社区范围内就龙卷风和山洪暴发发出警报;三）弹性数据传播架构的新概念，使天气信息能够根据具体情况（如精确位置）或人口统计数据（如年龄）进行定位。在达拉斯沃斯堡大都会区进行的实时预警系统实验将为进行实证研究、验证新技术和理论概念提供一个独特的机会。在恶劣天气事件期间，高分辨率雷达产品将被分发给NWS预报员，他们反过来将通过配备有应用程序的移动的手机向个人传播实验性的地理定位，上下文感知的实时警告，该应用程序记录信息搜索活动，通信，位置和移动，并支持事后调查。我们的项目利用了利益相关者的伙伴关系，技术，和社会技术研究实践的NSF工程研究中心的协作自适应感测的大气（CASA）和GENI基础设施，使规模研究在未来-这一努力的更广泛影响最终将包括改善公共安全和减灾，以及将发达技术的应用潜力远远超出达拉斯-沃斯堡地区一个咨询委员会，其中包括政府的中北部得克萨斯州理事会，沃斯堡市，国家气象局科学和技术办公室和其他人的代表将使我们的结果更快地转化为产品和服务，可以复制在得克萨斯州北部，和全国其他地区。关于公众反应的研究通过我们对视力或听力障碍者可理解的危险警报系统的分析，解决了服务不足的人群。针对少数民族服务机构的K-12教育工作包括根据我们的公众反应研究制定安全天气计划。