Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery and Antarctic Climate Change

南极的气候变化，沿着其几个全球性后果（如与南极冰盖表面物质平衡相关的海平面上升）通常被归因于温室气体（GHG）强迫上升。臭氧，特别是平流层中的臭氧，是另一种重要的辐射气体，其过去的人为消耗也会产生气候后果，例如春季极地夜间急流的加强。温室气体浓度在本世纪余下的时间里将继续上升，而平流层臭氧预计将在《蒙特利尔议定书》之后恢复，从而使南半球的环流趋势存在一些不确定性。将通过一系列地球系统模型实验研究臭氧变化与南极气候的四个方面之间的联系，即：一）南极表面温度，二）云层覆盖，三）海冰和冰盖质量平衡。 将使用两种不同类型的模型，第一种是化学-气候耦合模型，即全大气群落气候模型。第二个将是一个独立的冰盖模型，冰盖系统模型（ISSM），它将被迫与大气场从WACCM运行。仅改变大气温室气体数量的模拟将进一步允许对未来的臭氧和温室气体气候效应进行比较。这些大规模的气候影响也具有直接的社会和经济利益。南极气候和环境变化通过其与碳的地球化学循环、海洋环流和全球海平面上升的联系而产生深远的影响。后者与社会高度相关，从而了解南极气候变化的原因

Climate change in the Antarctic, along with its several global consequences (e.g. sea-level rise associated with surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet) are often attributed in terms of rising greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. Ozone, especially that residing in the stratosphere, is another radiatively important gas whose past anthropogenic depletion also has climate consequences e.g. intensification of the polar night jet during spring. GHG concentrations will continue to rise over the remainder of this century, whereas stratospheric ozone is expected to recover, following the Montreal Protocol, leaving some uncertainty in the resulting circulation trends in the Southern Hemisphere. Linkages between ozone change and four aspects of Antarctic climate namely: i) Antarctic surface temperatures, ii) cloud cover, iii) sea-ice and ice-sheet mass balance will be investigated by a series of earth systems model experiments. Two different types of models will be utilized, the first being a coupled chemistry-climate model, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The second will be a stand-alone ice sheet model, the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), which will be forced with the atmospheric fields from the WACCM runs. Simulations that only vary atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) amounts will further permit comparison between future ozone and GHG climate effects. These large scale climate effects are also of direct societal and economic interest. Antarctic climate and environmental change has far reaching impacts through its ties to biogeochemical cycling of carbon, ocean circulation and global sea level rise. The latter are highly relevant to society, and thus understanding the causes of Antarctic climate change