Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Implementation of Peace Agreements and Conflict Recurrence

在通过谈判解决内战后，是什么促使交战各方履行承诺，在选举、经济再分配或前战斗人员重返社会等不同问题领域实施改革？换言之，为什么有些和平协定得到充分执行，而另一些协定只得到部分执行或从未得到执行？协议各方何时以及为何决定恢复战斗，而不是遵守解决方案的条款？本项目通过解释协议执行程度的差异以及冲突再次发生的可能性来解决这些问题。提出的主要论点是，为了充分理解向和平的成功过渡，应考虑到谈判和执行阶段的动态，如第三方的参与和压力或对交战各方的支持量的变化。为了做到这一点，该项目从理论上阐述了一系列因素，这些因素改变了交战各方继续实施的动机。通过对1975年至2012年期间签署的83项协议后冲突后年份的分类数据进行统计分析以及深入的案例研究，对各项提议进行了测试。该项目的智力价值与冲突解决的理论化和分析方面的进展有关。和平协定的成功执行对持久和平至关重要。以往的研究表明，如果协议得到成功执行，同一群体之间的冲突就不太可能再次发生。这些研究中缺少的是对导致成功实施的因素进行仔细的理论化和实证检验。虽然现有的案例研究着眼于某些内战的执行过程，或侧重于过渡的个别方面，如冲突后选举，但没有对冲突后年份和执行过程进行全面的理论和经验分析。该项目填补了这一重大空白，提供了执行进程的一般理论，并利用冲突后年份的新数据检验了各种假设。此外，鉴于各种研究发现成功实施与和平持续时间之间的关系，解释成功实施的原因对冲突复发具有重大影响。因此，该项目的第二部分力求确定各方在何种条件下克服执行进程中的问题，并能够在不诉诸暴力的情况下成功地重新谈判一项协定，以及在执行失败和大规模暴力重新发生的情况下。除了理论和经验方面的贡献外，为该项目收集的关于冲突后年份的数据可能会为回答关于冲突后进程的其他有趣问题创造机会。最终生成的数据将与该领域的其他主要数据集兼容，以便未来的学者能够轻松地使用和扩展相关研究项目的数据，该项目不仅旨在填补冲突解决方面的理论和实证文献的空白，而且还寻求为如何增加实现稳定和平的可能性提供政策影响。促进脆弱国家（例如，伊拉克或阿富汗）有助于防止在缺乏完善治理的情况下出现更大的不稳定、激进化和恐怖主义，这是美国的主要国家安全战略之一。正如各种研究报告所指出的，自1990年代中期以来，每年反复发生的冲突都超过新发生的冲突，几乎一半的国内武装冲突是在谈判解决后再次发生的。这表明，将资源用于实现脆弱国家的冲突后稳定和成功过渡是一项重要而艰巨的任务，需要进一步开展大量研究。通过查明促使交战各方维持和平和继续执行解决方案的因素，该项目将帮助第三方和国际社会采用更有效的冲突后管理和监测战略。同样，阐明第三方在冲突的不同阶段（谈判和执行）参与冲突地区的影响，也将对美国以及其他国际行为体和捐助者参与冲突易发国家的时间和有效性产生直接的政策影响。

Following a negotiated settlement to a civil war, what causes warring parties to fulfill their promises of implementing reforms in different issue areas such as elections, economic redistribution, or integration of former combatants? In other words, why are some peace agreements fully implemented while others are only partially or never implemented? When and why do parties to an agreement decide to resume fighting instead of abiding by the terms of a settlement? This project addresses these questions by explaining variation in the degree of agreement implementation and consequently the likelihood that conflict will recur. The main argument advanced is that dynamics at both the negotiations and implementation stage - such as third party involvement and pressure or change in the amount of support given to warring parties - should be taken into account in order to fully understand successful transitions to peace. To do this the project theorizes about a range of factors that alter warring parties' incentives to continue implementation. Propositions are tested using statistical analysis of disaggregated data on post-conflict years following 83 agreements signed between 1975 and 2012 as well as in-depth case studies. The project's intellectual merits are associated with advances in theorizing and analysis of conflict resolution. The successful implementation of peace agreements is crucial for a durable peace. Previous studies show that conflict among the same groups is less likely to recur if implementation of an agreement is successful. What is missing in most of these studies is careful theorizing and empirical testing of the factors that lead to successful implementation. Although existing case studies look at the implementation processes of select civil wars or that focus on individual aspects of transitions such as post-conflict elections, there is no comprehensive theory and empirical analysis of post-conflict years and the implementation process. This project fills this significant gap by providing a general theory of the implementation process and tests hypotheses with new data on post-conflict years. Additionally, given the relationship found between successful implementation and the duration of peace in various studies, explaining what leads to successful implementation has significant implications for conflict recurrence. The second part of the project thus seeks to identify the conditions under which parties overcome problems in the implementation process and are able to successfully renegotiate an agreement without resort to violence and when implementation fails and large-scale violence resumes. In addition to theoretical and empirical contributions, the data collected for this project on post-conflict years will likely create opportunities to answer other interesting questions about the post-conflict processes. The final data generated will be compatible with other major datasets in the field so that future scholars will be able to easily use and extend the data for relevant research projects.This project not only aims to fill a gap in the theoretical and empirical literature in conflict resolution but also seeks to offer policy implications on how to increase the likelihood of achieving stable peace. Fostering security and reconstruction in post-conflict environments in fragile countries (e.g., Iraq or Afghanistan) helps to prevent greater instability, radicalization and terrorism that would emerge in the absence of well-established governance, which is one of the main national security strategies of the United States. As various studies point out, recurring conflicts have outnumbered new conflicts every year since the mid-1990s and almost half of internal armed conflicts have recurred following a negotiated settlement. This suggests that devoting resources to achieving post-conflict stability and successful transition in fragile countries is an important yet difficult task that warrants significant further research. By identifying the factors that incentivize warring parties to keep the peace and continue implementation of a settlement, this project will help third parties and the international community to employ more effective post-conflict management and monitoring strategies. Similarly, shedding light on the effects of third party involvement in conflict areas at different stages of conflict (negotiations and implementation) will also have direct policy implications for the timing and effectiveness of US as well as other international actor and donor involvement in conflict prone states.