Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Effects of Climatic Volatility on Economic Conditions and Voter Behavior in Africa

该项目调查了非洲民主和政治稳定研究中的两个紧迫问题：非洲人是否根据他们的经济福祉投票，以及气候波动引起的经济效应如何影响行为？虽然气候引发的冲突、抗议和移民已经被研究，但还没有研究调查气候条件对民主实践的可能影响。该研究解决了决策者和外交政策专家的重要问题：与极端天气事件相关的经济冲击是否会影响选举政治，以及这些冲击如何改变非洲民主国家？智力优势：该项目的智力价值与其经济投票理论与经济条件的根本气候原因的联系有关。由于撒哈拉以南非洲人口的经济福祉依赖自给农业，经济活动基础受到冲击可能影响投票决定。为了解决经济投票的问题，异常天气被用作经济冲击的代理，以揭示经济条件的冲击是否会改变选民的行为。这些动态与第二个问题有关，因为目前预测整个次大陆的天气波动会增加。了解选民对天气变化的反应将有助于洞察未来可能的动态。根据经验，该项目将建立一个新的国家以下一级的选举数据库，其中载有撒哈拉以南非洲国家过去地区一级的选举结果和投票率数据。该数据库将与行政边界的空间数据相结合，以包括地区一级的温度和降雨量异常情况。在有财政数据的情况下，将包括财政数据，以反映政府对经济状况不佳的反应。更广泛的影响：气候影响自然和社会系统，气候条件的波动可能会极大地改变这些系统。该项目旨在研究这种变化可能对世界上一个往往缺乏民主稳定性、最容易受到气候模式波动的严酷现实影响的地区的民主行为产生的影响。对资源稀缺可能改变选举结果和影响政治动荡的机制进行严格的、理论上知情的理解，将有助于援助捐助者和决策者更好地将其资源和政策用于更有效的人道主义目标。此外，如果非洲人在很大程度上以经济福祉为基础投票，那么破坏就业和收入来源的极端天气条件可能会影响民主发展的进程。这些调查结果对促进民主的实践者至关重要。

This project investigates two pressing questions in the study of democracy and political stability in Africa: do Africans vote based upon their economic well-being, and how do economic effects induced by climatic volatility affect behavior? While climate-induced conflict, protest, and migration have been studied, no research has yet investigated the possible effects of climatic conditions on democratic practices. The research addresses questions of importance to policy-makers and foreign policy specialists: Will economic shocks associated with extreme weather events affect electoral politics, and how might these shocks alter African democracies?Intellectual Merit: The intellectual merit of the project is associated with its connection of theories of economic voting to underlying climatic causes of economic conditions. Because populations in sub-Saharan Africa rely upon subsistence agriculture for their economic well-being, shocks to the foundation of economic activity could influence decisions at the polls. To address the question of economic voting, abnormal weather is used as a proxy for economic shocks to uncover whether shocks to economic conditions alter voter behavior. These dynamics are linked to the second question given current projections for increasing weather volatility across the sub-continent. Understanding voters' responses to weather variation will help provide insight into possible future dynamics. Empirically, the project will construct a novel, sub-national electoral database containing past district-level electoral results and turnout data from sub-Saharan nations. This database will be coupled with spatial data on administrative boundaries to include district-level temperature and rainfall abnormalities. Where available, fiscal data will be included to capture government responsiveness to poor economic conditions. Broader Impacts: Climate affects physical and social systems, and volatility in climatic conditions may dramatically alter these systems. The project seeks to examine the possible effects such change may have on democratic behavior in a region of the world often lacking democratic stability and most susceptible to the harsh realities of volatile climate patterns. A rigorous, theoretically informed understanding of the mechanisms through which resource scarcity can alter electoral outcomes and affect political volatility will help aid donors and policy-makers better target their resources and policies towards more efficient humanitarian goals. Moreover, if Africans vote heavily based on economic well-being, extreme weather conditions that disrupt sources of jobs and income could influence the course of democratic development. These findings will be of critical importance to democracy promotion practitioners.