Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Changes in actual and perceived coastal flood risks due to river management strategies

世界上人口最多的城市都位于三角洲沿岸的洪泛平原上，因为那里有肥沃的土壤和丰富的自然资源。由于人为改变沉积物供应和河流流量，土地逐渐下沉，海平面上升，河流三角洲正在以越来越快的速度消失，威胁着沿海河流三角洲人类住区的可持续性。河流管理项目，包括那些旨在促进航运和减少洪水的项目，在某些情况下加速了土地流失，增加了飓风洪水的威胁。本项目将探讨人类河流管理、沉积物供应、湿地建设能力、沿海洪水风险和人类对洪水风险的感知之间的关系。测试河流管理、湿地丧失和洪水风险之间的联系将改善对未来沿海系统状态的预测，并为如何可持续地管理沉积物供应和维护沿海地区的人类住区提供指导。其他更广泛的影响活动将包括研究生和本科教育，公共政策的应用，以及公共和K-12外展。这些都是统一的，通过在路易斯安那州（像许多其他三角洲海岸），三角洲恢复的科学对当地的福利和经济有强烈和直接的影响的普遍认识。该项目是美国国家科学基金会海岸科学、工程和教育促进可持续发展项目--海岸SEES的一部分，该项目将探讨三角洲景观和人类系统响应的共同演变，重点关注由于人类对沉积物输送的操纵而导致的海岸洪水风险的变化。将对密西西比河三角洲平原中部的三个实验性沿海流域进行调查，这些流域具有河流泥沙输送和湿地损失响应的不同历史。一个跨学科的研究团队将联合收割机结合实地研究和建模方法来表征：1）人类河流管理策略之间的反馈，减少沉积物输送和相应的景观退化和2）景观退化之间的因果关系，减少沉积物输送，增加飓风风暴潮的洪水风险，以及人类对感知洪水风险的反应。该小组将探讨河流管理战略的历史和未来成果，包括利用计算机模拟重组沿海地区的人类住区，包括沉积物供应如何建立土地和人类对洪水风险的反应。在建模框架中测试这些系统的相互作用将产生基础知识，可以为管理决策提供信息，并促进三角洲景观的可持续人类住区。

The most populated cities in the world are located on deltaic coastal floodplains because of their rich fertile soils and plentiful natural resources. River deltas are disappearing at increasing rates due to human-caused changes to sediment supply and river flow, gradual sinking of land, and rising sea level, threatening the sustainability of human settlements on coastal river deltas. River management projects, including those designed to promote navigation and reduce flooding, have in some cases accelerated land loss and increased the threat of hurricane flooding. This project will explore the relationships among human river management, sediment supply, wetland building capacity, coastal flood risk, and human perception of flood risk. Testing the connections between river management, wetland loss, and flood risks will improve prediction of future coastal system states and produce guidelines for how to sustainably manage sediment supply and maintain human settlement in coastal areas. Other broader impact activities will include graduate and undergraduate education, application to public policy, and public and K-12 outreach. These are all unified through the general recognition in Louisiana (like many other deltaic coasts) that the science of deltaic restoration has strong and direct impacts on local welfare and economies. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.This project will explore the co-evolution of deltaic landscapes and human system response by focusing on changes in coastal flood risks due to human manipulations of sediment delivery. Three experimental coastal basins in the central Mississippi River Deltaic Plain with distinct histories of sediment delivery by rivers and wetland loss responses will be investigated. An interdisciplinary team of researchers will combine field studies and modeling approaches to characterize: 1) feedbacks between human river management strategies that reduce sediment delivery and corresponding landscape degradation and 2) causal links between landscape degradation resulting from reduced sediment delivery, increased flood risks from hurricane storm surges, and human responses to perceived flood risks. The team will explore historical and future outcomes of river management strategies, including reorganization of human settlement in coastal areas using computer simulations incorporating how sediment supply builds land and human response to flood risks. Testing these system interactions in a modeling framework will produce foundational knowledge that can inform management decisions and promote sustainable human settlements on deltaic landscapes.