Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Changes in actual and perceived coastal flood risks due to river management strategies

世界上人口最多的城市位于三角洲沿海泛滥平原上，因为它们肥沃的土壤和丰富的自然资源。由于人类造成的泥沙供应和河流流量的变化、陆地的逐渐下沉和海平面的上升，河流三角洲正在以越来越快的速度消失，威胁到沿海河流三角洲人类住区的可持续性。河流管理项目，包括那些旨在促进通航和减少洪水的项目，在某些情况下加速了土地流失，增加了飓风洪水的威胁。该项目将探索人类河流管理、泥沙供应、湿地建设能力、沿海洪水风险以及人类对洪水风险的感知之间的关系。测试河流管理、湿地损失和洪水风险之间的联系将改善对未来海岸系统状态的预测，并为如何可持续地管理沉积物供应和维持沿海地区的人类住区提供指导方针。其他更广泛的影响活动将包括研究生和本科生教育、公共政策应用以及公共和K-12外联。所有这些都是通过路易斯安那州(像许多其他三角洲海岸一样)普遍认识到三角洲恢复科学对当地福利和经济具有强大而直接的影响而得到统一的。该项目作为国家科学基金会海岸科学、工程和可持续发展教育计划-海岸SEES的一部分得到支持。该项目将探索三角洲景观和人类系统响应的共同进化，重点关注由于人类操纵泥沙输送而导致的沿海洪水风险的变化。将调查密西西比河三角洲平原中部的三个试验性沿海盆地，它们具有不同的河流输沙历史和湿地损失响应。一个跨学科的研究小组将结合实地研究和建模方法来表征：1)减少泥沙输送的人类河流管理战略与相应的景观退化之间的反馈；2)泥沙输送减少导致的景观退化、飓风风暴潮增加的洪水风险以及人类对感知的洪水风险的反应之间的因果联系。该小组将探索河流管理战略的历史和未来结果，包括利用计算机模拟重组沿海地区的人类住区，纳入泥沙供应如何形成土地和人类对洪水风险的反应。在建模框架中测试这些系统相互作用将产生基础知识，这些知识可以为管理决策提供信息，并促进三角洲景观上的可持续人类住区。

The most populated cities in the world are located on deltaic coastal floodplains because of their rich fertile soils and plentiful natural resources. River deltas are disappearing at increasing rates due to human-caused changes to sediment supply and river flow, gradual sinking of land, and rising sea level, threatening the sustainability of human settlements on coastal river deltas. River management projects, including those designed to promote navigation and reduce flooding, have in some cases accelerated land loss and increased the threat of hurricane flooding. This project will explore the relationships among human river management, sediment supply, wetland building capacity, coastal flood risk, and human perception of flood risk. Testing the connections between river management, wetland loss, and flood risks will improve prediction of future coastal system states and produce guidelines for how to sustainably manage sediment supply and maintain human settlement in coastal areas. Other broader impact activities will include graduate and undergraduate education, application to public policy, and public and K-12 outreach. These are all unified through the general recognition in Louisiana (like many other deltaic coasts) that the science of deltaic restoration has strong and direct impacts on local welfare and economies. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.This project will explore the co-evolution of deltaic landscapes and human system response by focusing on changes in coastal flood risks due to human manipulations of sediment delivery. Three experimental coastal basins in the central Mississippi River Deltaic Plain with distinct histories of sediment delivery by rivers and wetland loss responses will be investigated. An interdisciplinary team of researchers will combine field studies and modeling approaches to characterize: 1) feedbacks between human river management strategies that reduce sediment delivery and corresponding landscape degradation and 2) causal links between landscape degradation resulting from reduced sediment delivery, increased flood risks from hurricane storm surges, and human responses to perceived flood risks. The team will explore historical and future outcomes of river management strategies, including reorganization of human settlement in coastal areas using computer simulations incorporating how sediment supply builds land and human response to flood risks. Testing these system interactions in a modeling framework will produce foundational knowledge that can inform management decisions and promote sustainable human settlements on deltaic landscapes.