Adult Age Differences in Hindsight Bias

一旦人们知道了之前对结果的预测，对实际结果的回忆往往会被扭曲。这种现象被称为后见之明偏见，是一种强大的效应，但其程度似乎与年龄有关。老年人比年轻人表现出更强的后见之明偏见（Bayen, Erdfelder, Bearden, & Lozito, 2006; Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, & Loftus, 2011）。该研究项目旨在调查这些年龄差异的可能解释，即抑制缺陷、策略差异和记忆差异。Hasher和Zacks（1988）的认知衰老的抑制缺陷理论提供了一种可能的解释，因为它假设在信息处理的不同阶段抑制的年龄相关缺陷。由于后见之明记忆设计是一种干扰范式，其中不相关的信息（解决方案）必须被忽略，抑制（或2分心控制）可能会影响后见之明偏差的程度。通过眼动测量，我们将研究不相关信息的获取及其在工作记忆中的抑制。然而，对不相关信息的不同访问可能是有意的；因此，不同年龄组在完成后见偏差记忆任务时可能采用不同的策略。因此，研究了解决方案的战略使用，作为另一种解释。记忆的年龄差异也可能发挥重要作用，因为较低的回忆能力可能使老年人更容易产生后见之明的偏见。该研究项目将有助于更好地理解后见之明偏见背后的认知过程，以及认知衰老理论。

Recollections of earlier predictions of outcomes tend to be distorted towards the actual outcome once people know about that outcome. This phenomenon, called hindsight bias, is a robust effect, yet its magnitude seems age dependent. Older adults show a stronger hindsight bias than younger adults (Bayen, Erdfelder, Bearden, & Lozito, 2006; Bernstein, Erdfelder, Meltzoff, Peria, & Loftus, 2011). The research program is aimed at investigating possible explanations for those age differences, namely inhibitory deficit, strategic differences and differences in memory. Hasher and Zacks‟ (1988) inhibitory-deficit theory of cognitive aging offers a possible explanation, as it postulates age-related deficits in inhibition on different stages of information processing. As the hindsight memory design is an interference paradigm, where irrelevant information (the solution) must be ignored, inhibition (or 2 distraction control) may influence hindsight-bias magnitude. By using eye-movement measurements, we will investigate access to the irrelevant information as well as its suppression in working memory. However, differential access to the irrelevant information might be intentional; thus, age groups may follow different strategies in completing the hindsight-bias memory task. Strategic use of the solution is therefore investigated as an alternative explanation. Age differences in memory may also play a substantial role, as lower recall ability may make older adults more prone to hindsight bias. The research program will contribute to a better understanding of cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias as well as to theories of cognitive aging.