Dynamic Oligopolistic Competition between Innovating Firms

该项目的总体目标是开发和利用一个动态的分析框架，在考虑到未来市场结构变化的不确定性的情况下，研究寡头垄断企业的最佳投资策略。所考虑的市场结构变化是由于市场上企业的产品创新引发的市场上提供的产品范围的变化。由于创新企业推出新产品的能力通常取决于创新企业的创新努力，因此这种变化是企业战略和行业动态的内生结果。因此，在既定市场上的企业战略（如产能投资）和旨在引入扩大产品范围的新产品的创新战略之间存在重要的反馈效应。本项目的主要贡献是在动态博弈论框架下考虑市场结构预期变化对既定市场战略行为的影响，以及既定产品的能力投资与创新努力之间的反馈。采用分析和数值方法的结合，将解决以下主要研究问题：未来引入额外（差异化）产品的前景如何影响寡头垄断企业在既定市场上的产能投资？竞争对手之间创新能力的不对称如何影响产能动态？对创新活动进行投资的动机如何受到现有产品生产能力的影响？引进新产品的时间如何受到现有产品（当前）产能的影响？既定市场的产能规模如何影响（贴现的）未来利润流？在哪些情况下，大产能可能对未来利润产生负面影响？

The overall aim of this project is to develop and exploit a dynamic framework of analysis that allows studying the optimal investment strategies of oligopolistic firms under consideration of the uncertainty about future changes in the market structure. The considered changes in the market structure are due to changes in the range of products offered on the market triggered by product innovations of the firms in the market. As the ability to introduce new products is typically based on innovation effort of the innovating firm, such changes are endogenous results of firm strategies and industry dynamics. Therefore, there are important feedback effects between firm strategies on established markets (like capacity investments) and innovation strategies aiming at the introduction of new products that extend the product range. The main contribution of this project is to consider the effects of expected changes in the market structure on strategic behavior on established markets, as well as the feedback between capacity investments for established products and innovation efforts, in a dynamic game theoretic framework. Employing a combination of analytical and numerical methods the following main research questions will be addressed:¿ How does the perspective of the future introduction of additional (differentiated) products affect capacity investments of oligopolistic firms on established markets?¿ How are the capacity dynamics influenced by asymmetries with respect to innovation capabilities between competitors? ¿ How are incentives to invest in innovative activities influenced by (current) capacities for established products? ¿ How is the timing of the introduction of a new product influenced by (current) capacities for established products? ¿ How are (discounted) future profit streams affected by the size of capacities for the established markets? Under which circumstances might large capacities have negative implications for future profits?