CNH-L: Science-Driven, Community-Based Approach to Reducing Glacier Lake Outburst Flood Risks

在过去的几十年里，山区的数百条冰川正在融化，留下了新的冰川湖泊，储存了数百万立方米的水。这些湖泊通常被松散的巨石和土壤组成的堤坝所包围，存在冰川湖暴发洪水(GLOF)的风险。随着这些湖泊的数量和范围的增加，它们下游社区的洪水风险也在增加，可能导致广泛的生命损失，并对交通基础设施、水电设施和农业造成严重破坏。该项目将着眼于导致GLOF的因素，以及当地人口可以采取的措施来适应这种日益增长的威胁。这项研究将捕捉冰川湖泊及其附近社区的独特知识，与美国和其他地方面临这些问题挑战的研究人员和决策者分享这些知识。跨学科研究方法将有助于在冰川为主的山脉系统的自然和人类耦合系统领域培养新一代科学家。它将导致对风险的更好理解和管理，以及降低与这些系统相关的洪水风险的设计。拟议研究的目标是：(1)通过分析气候变化对冰川湖泊的影响，了解自然系统动态；(2)通过发展社区驱动的冰川湖泊减少风险系统，通过加强社区对冰川湖泊灾害的适应能力，了解人类系统动态；(3)通过评估当地生态知识和对水文资源的了解，了解自然系统如何影响人类系统，以及社会生态系统对冰川湖泊洪水灾害的脆弱性，以及(4)通过社区驱动的解决方案的设计和建模，了解人类系统如何影响自然系统，以分析洪水风险的降低和冰川湖泊的演变。该项目将把实地物理和社会观察与地理空间分析、密集的冰川水文学和暴发洪水建模、主要答复者访谈以及社区一级的地图绘制和重点小组相结合。该项目将评估与突发性洪水有关的过程，包括冰川水文学、河流流动、水力学和沉积物/碎片运输模型。这些自然系统影响将与人文科学方面相结合，以评估潜在的突发性洪水事件对社区、家庭和生态旅游的社会经济影响。

Over the past several decades, hundreds of glaciers in mountainous regions have been melting, leaving behind new glacier lakes holding millions of cubic meters of water. Usually contained by dams of loose boulders and soil, these lakes present a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). As the number and extent of these lakes grows, so does the flood risk for communities downstream of them, potentially leading to extensive loss of lives and severe damage to transport infrastructure, hydroelectric power facilities and agriculture. This project will look at the factors that lead to GLOFs, and the measures that local populations can take to adapt to this increasing threat. The research will capture unique knowledge of glacial lakes and the communities that live near them, sharing this with researchers and decision makers challenged by these problems in the U.S. and elsewhere. The interdisciplinary research approach will contribute to the development of a new generation of scientists in the area of coupled natural and human systems of glacier-dominated mountain systems. It will lead to improved understanding and management of risks, and of designs that reduce flood risk related to these systems. The goals of the proposed research are to: (1) Understand natural system dynamics through an analysis of the impacts of climate change on glacial lakes, (2) Understand the human system dynamics through the strengthening of community resiliency to glacial lake hazards by developing community-driven glacial lake risk reduction systems, (3) Understand how the natural system affects the human system through the assessment of local ecological knowledge and understanding of hydrological resources and the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to glacial lake outburst flood hazard, and (4) Understand how the human system affects the natural system through the design and modeling of community-driven solutions to analyze the reduction of flood risk and the evolution of glacial lakes. The project will integrate in situ physical and societal observations with geospatial analyses, intensive glacial hydrology and outburst flood modeling, key respondents interviews, and community level mappings and focus groups. The project will assess outburst flood-related processes that include glacier hydrology, river flow, hydraulics, and sediment/debris transport models. These natural system impacts will be integrated with the human science aspects to evaluate socio-economic impacts of potential outburst flood events on communities, households, and ecotourism.