Collaborative Research: P2C2--The Role of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Modulating Tropical Pacific Climate

该合作项目的总体目标是开发一个多尺度模式-代用品合成，以探索过去气候中多年ENSO变率与热带太平洋海面温度（SST）梯度之间的关系，并帮助评估模式模拟过去、现在和未来潜在气候中这些关系的能力。即使在没有外力的情况下 ENSO活动增加的时期可能会影响热带太平洋的平均状态，因为大型厄尔尼诺事件的残余加热会降低纬向SST梯度。 反过来，ENSO调制的纬向SST梯度的几十年变化可以对全球温度趋势产生影响。 目前，这些因果关系在模型和观测中受到的约束很差。该项目的价值很高，因为它确定了一个有趣的科学问题（即，ENSO-平均状态相互作用），这是重要的，以促进我们的理解ENSO和年代际气候变率，可以受益于使用古气候代理的动态。预期的结果有可能有助于解释在当今气候中观测到的十年变化，并有助于选择有可能对未来气候作出更准确预测的气候模式。帮助培养新一代的地球科学家，他们愿意弥合建模和古气候数据世界之间的鸿沟;支持两名早期职业女性科学家;并支持两名博士生。

This collaborative project generally aims to develop a multi-scale model-proxy synthesis to explore the relationship between multi-decadal ENSO variability and tropical Pacific seas surface temperature (SST) gradients in past climates and help assess model skill in simulating these relationships in past, present, and potential future climates.The activity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies significantly at multi-decadal to centennial timescales, even in the absence of external forcing. Periods of increased ENSO activity may affect the mean state of the tropical Pacific, via a decrease of the zonal SST gradient due to residual heating from large El Niño events. In turn, ENSO-modulated multi-decadal variations of the zonal SST gradient can exert influence on global temperature trends. These causal links are argued to be poorly constrained in models and observations, at present.The merit of the project is high because it identifies an interesting scientific issue (i.e., the ENSO-mean state interaction) that is important for advancing our understanding the dynamics of ENSO and decadal climate variability that can benefit from using paleo-climate proxies. The anticipated results have the potential to aid in interpreting the decadal variability observed in the present-day climate and the selection of climate models that have the potential to make more accurate projections of future climate.The Broader Impacts involve the potential for creating increased confidence in theory and models of future climate in the tropics; helping create a new generation of earth scientists willing to bridge the divide between the worlds of modeling and paleoclimate data; support two early career female scientists; and support two doctoral students.