The Impact of the Stratosphere on Arctic Climate

在过去的几十年里，北极表面的气候急剧变暖。这种被称为北极放大的气候变暖，最值得注意的是，它与海冰的广泛消失有关。北极平流层也一直在经历变化，包括平流层臭氧的显著消耗。越来越多的证据表明，极地平流层的可变性和变化可以对地表气候产生重大的下行影响。这项拟议的研究将审查平流层环流和化学与北极地区地面气候过去和未来变化之间的联系。了解北极地区平流层和地面之间的耦合对海冰和天气预报具有潜在的重要意义。此外，拟议的研究将有助于更好地了解将决定未来北极平流层和对流层臭氧浓度的本地和远程过程。这一点很重要，因为(A)平流层臭氧保护地球免受有害紫外线辐射的伤害，(B)对流层臭氧是一种有毒污染物，可能对该地区的空气质量和植被产生潜在的负面影响。首席调查员是一名初级调查员，这个项目将在她职业生涯的形成阶段为她提供支持。该项目还将为培养一名研究生提供支持。预期的科学成果有可能有助于改善对海冰和天气的短期预报。该项目将加强NCAR和哥伦比亚大学之间的合作。通过利用美国自然历史博物馆和因纽特人阿维亚特村的项目，将能够接触到高中生。最后，研究成果将通过由首席研究员S家庭机构赞助的一个正在进行的项目与当地的K-12教师分享。拟议的研究将通过使用基于观测的数据产品和全球气候模式集成来进行，以解决平流层环流和化学是否对北极表面气候，特别是海冰，在季节性、年际和数十年时间尺度上产生下行影响的问题。从模拟的角度来看，提案中概述的办法将是采用全大气社区气候模式(WACCM)，该模式有三种不同的配置，将能够审查动力学和化学之间的相互作用：(1)具有相互作用的平流层化学的标准WACCM，(2)WACCM的特定化学版本(SC-WACCM)和(3)具有对流层和平流层化学的新的完全耦合的WACCM-TSMLT。

The Arctic surface climate has warmed dramatically over the past several decades. This warming, known as Arctic amplification, is associated, most notably, with extensive loss of sea ice. The Arctic stratosphere has also been experiencing change, including significant stratospheric ozone depletion. There is increasing evidence that polar stratospheric variability and change can have a significant downward impact on the surface climate. The proposed research will examine the connection between stratospheric circulation and chemistry and past and future changes in the surface climate of the Arctic region. Understanding the coupling between the stratosphere and the surface in the Arctic region has potentially important implications for sea ice and weather forecasting. In addition, the proposed research will lead to an improved understanding of the local and remote processes that will determine Arctic stratospheric and tropospheric ozone concentrations in the future. This is important because (a) stratospheric ozone protects the earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation and (b) tropospheric ozone is a toxic pollutant, which may have potential negative impacts on air quality and vegetation in the region.This project will contribute to STEM workforce development in two ways. The principal investigator is a beginning investigator and this project will provide her support during the formative years of her career. The project will also provide support for the training of a graduate student. The anticipated science results have the potential to contribute to improve short-range forecast of sea ice and weather. The project will enhance collaboration between NCAR and Columbia University. Outreach to high school students will be enabled through leveraging of programs at the American Museum of Natural History and in the Inuit village of Arviat. Finally, research results will be shared with local K-12 teachers through an ongoing program sponsored by the principal investigator?s home institution.The proposed research will be carried out by employing both observationally-based data products and global climate model integrations to address the question of whether stratospheric circulation and chemistry has a downward influence of the Arctic surface climate, particularly sea ice, on seasonal, interannual and multi-decadal time scales. From a modeling perspective, the approach outlined in the proposal will be to employ the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), with three different configurations that will allow examination of the interplay between dynamics and chemistry: (i) the standard WACCM with interactive stratospheric chemistry, (ii) the specified-chemistry version of WACCM (SC-WACCM) and (iii) the new fully coupled WACCM-TSMLT with tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry.