Dimensions - Predicting Biodiversity Vulnerability to Climate Change: Integrating Phylogenetic, Genomic, and Functional Diversity in River Floodplains

河流泛滥平原是地球上最多样和最多产的景观之一，但它们也是最濒危的景观之一，因为水坝、开发、渠化和气候变化造成的变化。没有改变的泛滥平原尤其重要，因为它们提供了我们在地面上可以看到的水和我们在地下网络中看不到的水之间的广泛交换，地下网络通常延伸到远离河道的很远的地方。这种水交换创造了多样化的栖息地，支持数千种植物、动物和微生物，同时提供有价值的生态系统服务，如净水和缓冲洪水。这项研究将提高我们对生物多样性如何在河流泛滥平原等景观中随气候变化的理解，并将有助于识别极易受到环境变化影响的非常小动物的“指示物种”。这些指示物种可用于监测未来气候变化对全球河流生态系统的负面影响。该项目预计将在蒙大拿州和华盛顿州的河流泛滥平原上发现许多新物种，并将开展“Biobitz”活动，在这些活动中，学生和普通公众(公民科学家)将与科学家合作，寻找和识别尽可能多的泛滥平原物种。此外，该项目将为本科生提供夏季野外课程的教育机会，培训研究生和博士后研究员基因组技术，开发自由软件，为美洲原住民学生提供宝贵的野外和实验室经验，并制作教育外展视频、播客、网页和科学出版物。该项目将通过以下方式填补生物多样性研究中的重要知识空白：1)量化含水层和底栖泛滥平原物种的系统发育多样性，同时识别新物种；2)测量12个指示物种(代表不同功能群体)对气候变化的敏感性；3)通过测量和模拟水温和溶解氧的变化来量化含水层和河流对气候变化的影响，4)通过测量扩散和基因流动的速度以及遗传多样性(中性和适应性遗传标记)来评估泛滥平原指示物种的适应能力，以及5)预测泛滥平原内和泛滥平原之间生物多样性的总体脆弱性。该项目的基因组部分结合了全基因组研究，以揭示在多个野生指示物种中假定的适应性基因标记。该项目将在一个创新的框架中整合系统发育、基因组和功能生物多样性，该框架结合了气候变化脆弱性建模的关键组件以及使用贝叶斯网络方法的人口和人口遗传建模。该项目中的新的综合方法将提供迄今为止对物种和社区脆弱性最彻底和最定量的评估之一。这一方法将迅速促进对河流泛滥平原的了解，这些平原是全球受到威胁的生物多样性热点。

River floodplains are among the most diverse and productive landscapes on Earth, yet they are also among the most endangered because of alterations resulting from dams, development, channelization, and climate change. Unaltered floodplains are particularly important because they provide extensive exchange between water we that can see above ground and water that we cannot see in underground networks that often extend long distances away from the river channel. This exchange of water creates diverse habitats that support thousands of species of plants, animals, and microorganisms while providing valuable ecosystem services such as water purification and buffering floods. This research will improve our understanding how biodiversity varies with climate in landscapes like river floodplains, and will help identify "indicator species" of very small animals that are highly vulnerable to environmental change. Such indicator species can be used to monitor river ecosystems globally for negative impacts of climate change in the future. This project is expected to discover many new species on river floodplains in Montana and Washington, and will conduct "bioblitz" events in which students and the general public (citizen scientists) will work with scientists to find and identify as many floodplain species as possible. Additionally, this project will provide educational opportunities for undergraduate students in summer field courses, train graduate students and postdoctoral fellows in genomic techniques, develop free software, provide Native American students with valuable field and lab experience, and produce educational outreach videos, podcasts, a web page, and scientific publications.This project will fill important knowledge gaps in biodiversity research by 1) quantifying phylogenetic diversity among aquifer and benthic floodplain species while identifying new species, 2) measuring sensitivity to climate change of 12 indicator species (representing diverse functional groups) sampled from aquifers and rivers along environmental gradients, 3) quantify exposure to climate change in the aquifer and river by measuring and modeling variation in water temperature and dissolved oxygen, 4) assessing adaptive capacity in floodplain indicator species by measuring rates of dispersal and gene flow, and genetic diversity (at neutral and adaptive genetic markers), and 5) predict overall vulnerability of biodiversity within and among floodplains. The genomic component of this project combines genome-wide studies to reveal putatively adaptive gene markers in multiple, wild indicator species. This project will integrate phylogenetic, genomic, and functional biodiversity in an innovative framework combining key components of climate change vulnerability modeling and demographic and population genetic modeling using a Bayesian network approach. The novel integrative approaches in this project will provide one of the most thorough and quantitative assessments of species and community vulnerability to date. The approach will rapidly advance understanding of river floodplains, which are globally threatened hotspots of biodiversity.