CAREER: A change in the forecast: Ocean biogeochemistry over the next decade

对近期（未来数年至数十年）自然气候系统的社会相关信息的迫切需求已在年代际气候预测领域产生了广泛的研究。最近的工作强调了气候模型预测区域表面气温、降水、北极海冰范围和海洋热含量的能力，这些预测需要提前几年；这样的预测对那些管理基础设施和资源的人非常有用。在这些时间尺度上使用模型来预测海洋化学和生物的区域变化的情况要少见得多，但对管理人员、决策者和科学事业也可能非常有用。在这个职业奖中，研究者将使用一个模型对海洋化学和生物在一到十年时间尺度上的变化进行区域预测；这些预测将根据现实世界的观察结果进行测试，以评估和理解预测的技巧。这个项目的主要教育目标是为来自代表性不足群体的本科生准备海洋学领域的研究生学习。这将通过与暑期多元文化研究培训项目（SMART）合作来实现，为五名本科生提供变革性的学习和指导经验，为他们进入有竞争力的研究生课程铺平道路。SMART项目拥有完善的招聘策略和评估协议，并在减少STEM领域多数和少数族裔博士获得者之间的差距方面取得了巨大成功。预计这一项目将使人数不足的学生获得化学和物理海洋学博士学位的人数增加。PI坚定地致力于通过为这些学生提供真正的研究经验和指导，将不同的本科STEM学生推向研究生课程，并且有成功将学生安置到研究生课程的历史。项目负责人坚定地致力于通过为这些学生提供真正的研究经验和指导，将不同的本科STEM学生推向研究生课程，并有成功将学生安置到研究生课程的历史。该项目还将支持一名研究生和博士后研究员的教育和培训。项目团队建议使用地球系统模型的输出分析海洋生物地球化学预测，该模型具有完全解析的海洋生物地球化学和卫星、水文和自主平台的观测结果。从年度到十年的时间尺度，该团队将量化关键海洋生物地球化学参数的可预测性和预测技能，包括海洋表面pH值、分压和二氧化碳的海气通量、海洋上层文石饱和状态、净初级产量和氧气浓度。基于模型的可预测性研究将探讨熟练的海洋生物地球化学预测的局限性，并探讨其中的机制。对近期持续的海洋生物地球化学事件的详细分析将有助于了解未来十年的可预测性。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The pressing need for societally-relevant information about the physical climate system in the near future (the coming years to decades) has generated extensive research in the field of decadal climate prediction. Recent work highlights the ability of climate models to predict such things as regional surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic sea ice extent, and ocean heat content with several years lead time; such predictions are of great use to those who manage infrastructure and resources. The use of models for predictions of regional changes in ocean chemistry and biology on these timescales is much less common but could also be very useful to managers, policy makers, and the scientific enterprise. In this CAREER award, the investigator will use a model to make regional predictions of changes in ocean chemistry and biology on one- to ten-year timescales; these predictions will be tested against real-world observations to assess and understand the skill of the predictions. The major educational goal of this project is to prepare undergraduate students from underrepresented groups for graduate study in the field of oceanography. This will be achieved by partnering with the Summer Multicultural Access to Research Training (SMART) program to provide five undergraduate students with transformative learning and mentoring experiences that will expand their pathways to competitive graduate programs. The SMART program has well-established recruiting strategies and assessment protocols and has achieved tremendous success in reducing the disparities between majority and minority PhD recipients in STEM fields. It is anticipated that this project will give rise to increased numbers of underrepresented students achieving doctoral degrees in chemical and physical oceanography. The PI is strongly committed to moving diverse undergraduate STEM students forward into graduate programs by providing genuine research experiences and mentorship to these students and has a history of successful student placement into graduate programs. The project leader is strongly committed to moving diverse undergraduate STEM students forward into graduate programs by providing genuine research experiences and mentorship to these students and has a history of successful student placement into graduate programs. The project will also support the education and training of a graduate student and postdoctoral researcher. The project team proposes to analyze ocean biogeochemistry predictions using output from an Earth System Model with fully resolved ocean biogeochemistry and observations from satellite, hydrographic, and autonomous platforms. From annual to decadal timescales, the team will quantify predictability and predictive skill in key ocean biogeochemical parameters, including surface ocean pH, partial pressure and air-sea flux of carbon dioxide, and upper-ocean aragonite saturation state, net primary production, and oxygen concentration. The model-based predictability study will probe the limits of skillful ocean biogeochemical prediction and investigate the mechanisms involved. Detailed analysis of sustained ocean biogeochemical events in the recent past will inform understanding of their predictability in the coming decade.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.