Arctic Village Dynamics: Longitudinal Study of Population, Environment, and Community Change in Alaska

该项目将开发、分析和共享一个数据库，跟踪大约80个北极阿拉斯加城镇和村庄的人口和移民的年度变化，使现有的该主题数据库的规模翻一番。其中一些社区面临严重的侵蚀威胁，而其他社区可能会看到变化中的北极的交通或资源开发带来的重大影响。作为全球化环境中的土著社区，所有人都在经历复杂和迅速的社会经济变化。这个数据库将衡量人口变化和净移民，这为评估许多相互竞争的力量的总体影响提供了关键的社会指标，并为未来的计划提供信息。该数据库以前的初步版本测试了关于2008年经济衰退的影响的假设，以及一些村庄日益严重的侵蚀对人口动态的影响。最新的分析将阿拉斯加北部的人口趋势与另外两个因纽特北极地区--加拿大的努纳武特领地和格陵兰--的人口趋势进行了比较。这个数据库的组织有助于将社区人口统计数据与其他类型的数据结合起来，如资源使用、环境观察以及基于区域或地点的社会经济和健康指标。收集的数据主要集中在人口数据，包括出生率和死亡率以及移徙模式。迄今的应用包括确定社区变化的人口统计方面的特征；模拟个别社区的电力消耗；测试关于环境和经济对净移徙的影响的假设。计划在该项目的头两年进行的新分析将涉及：(1)北极社区趋势的区域间和区域内比较；(2)发现和测试应对突发事件、新政策或已经采取行动的经济和环境力量的变化；(3)土著社区移民方面持续存在的性别差异的程度和影响；(4)进一步分析北极阿拉斯加、格陵兰和加拿大北部社区之间的差异。关于项目发现的报告，以适当的格式，将面向一系列科学、阿拉斯加利益相关者和普通公众。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will develop, analyze, and share a database tracking yearly changes in population and migration for approximately 80 individual Arctic Alaska towns and villages, doubling the size of extant databases on this topic. Some of these communities face serious threats from erosion while other communities may see substantial impacts from transportation or resource development in the changing Arctic. All are experiencing complex and rapid socioeconomic changes as Indigenous communities in a globalizing environment. This database will measure population change and net migration, which provides key social indicators for assessing overall effects from many competing forces, and informing plans for the future. Previous work with preliminary versions of this database tested hypotheses about the impacts of the 2008 recession, and consequences of rising erosion in some villages on population dynamics. Newer analyses have compared population trends in northern Alaska with those of two other Inuit Arctic regions, Nunavut Territory in Canada, and Greenland.The organization of this database facilitates integration of community demographics with other types of data such as resource use, environmental observations, and regional or place-based socioeconomic and health indicators. The data collected focus primarily on demographic data, including birth and death rates as well as migration patterns. Applications to date include characterizing demographic aspects of community change; modeling electricity consumption of individual communities; and testing hypotheses about environmental and economic effects on net migration. New analyses planned for the first two years of this project will address (1) inter- and intra-regional comparisons of Arctic community trends; (2) detection and testing for change in response to sudden events, new policies, or economic and environmental forces already in motion; (3) magnitude and impact of continuing gender differences in migration from indigenous communities; and (4) further analysis of differences between communities of Arctic Alaska, Greenland and northern Canada. Reports on project findings, in appropriate formats, will address a range of scientific, Alaska stakeholder, and general public audiences.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.