CNH-L: Revealing the Hidden Ecoclimate Teleconnections Between Forest and Agriculture in the U.S. Enables Novel Governance Strategies for a Telecoupled World

该奖项将为决策者提供知识和工具，以更好地理解和应对美国一部分地区的森林状况与其他地区农业生产之间的隐藏联系，这种联系被称为远程联系。最近的科学研究表明，森林的变化--例如西部与干旱、甲虫侵扰和野火有关的大范围死亡--会影响温度和降水的模式，而温度和降水又通过大气过程与该国其他地区的农业生产“联系起来”。这项研究将确定美国各地森林死亡对农业产量和作物价值的经济影响，并将制定一份蓝图，以应对此类结果带来的挑战。该奖项将为决策者提供在远程耦合的世界中更好地管理自然-人类系统的知识和工具。下个世纪的一个重大挑战不仅是理解自然和人类系统之间的生态联系，而且还要了解生态条件变化如何以及何时能够促使有效的治理反馈响应。这项研究对有关远程耦合的自然-人类系统的文献做出了贡献，重点是美国森林和农业之间的隐藏联系。该奖项的长期目标是为决策者提供知识和工具，以更好地管理远程耦合世界中的自然-人类系统。一个地区植被的变化可能会导致温度、降水量的变化，进而导致遥远地区的总初级生产力的变化--这一过程被称为生态气候遥相关。例如，近年来，由于干旱、甲虫肆虐和野火，加州890万英亩的土地上有1.29亿棵树被历史性地杀死。通过生态气候遥相关，这种大规模森林死亡可能导致遥远地区的人类系统发生远程耦合的变化，例如中西部的农业产量和相关的市场变化。具体地说，这项研究将：(1)确定全美森林死亡的生态气候遥相关；(2)量化这种变化对关键生物气候区域的美国农业产量和作物价值的经济影响；(3)确定可能影响决策者适应远程耦合的森林-农业系统的能力的政治、制度和行为因素；以及(4)召开与决策者的互动研讨会，介绍研究结果，并共同制定解决这种远程耦合的治理挑战的蓝图。该奖项将利用国家生态观测站网络来评估森林和农业之间的远程联系的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better understand and respond to the hidden connections, called teleconnections, between forest conditions in one part of the US and agricultural production elsewhere. Recent scientific studies show that changes in forests-such as the widespread die-off in the West related to drought, beetle infestations, and wildfires-affect patterns of temperature and precipitation, which in turn "connect" through atmospheric processes to agricultural production in other parts of the country. This research will determine the economic impacts of forest die-off across the US on agricultural yields and crop values and will develop a blueprint to manage the challenges of such outcomes. This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world.A grand challenge of the coming century is not only to understand the ecological connections between natural and human systems, but also to understand how and when changing ecological conditions can prompt effective governance feedback responses. This research contributes to the body of literature on telecoupled natural-human systems, focusing on the hidden linkages between forests and agriculture in the US. The long-term goal of the award is to provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world. Changes in vegetation in one location can drive changes in temperature, precipitation, and, subsequently, gross primary productivity in distant locations-a process referred to as an ecoclimate teleconnection. For example, in recent years, California has seen a historic 129 million trees killed across 8.9 million acres, a result of drought, beetle infestation, and wildfire. Via ecoclimatic teleconnections, such large-scale forest die-off may result in telecoupled changes in human systems in distant locations, such as in agricultural yields in the Midwest and related market changes. Specifically, this research will: (1) determine the ecoclimate teleconnections of forest die-off across the US; (2) quantify economic impacts of such changes on US agricultural yield and crop values in key bioclimatic regions; (3) determine the political, institutional, and behavioral factors that may influence decision-makers' ability to respond adaptively to telecoupled forest-agricultural systems; and (4) convene an interactive workshop with decision-makers to present the research findings and to co-produce a blueprint for addressing the governance challenges of such telecoupling. The award will utilize the National Ecological Observatory Network to evaluate the effects of teleconnections between forests and agriculture.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.