Excellence in Research: Integrated Hazard and Traffic Modeling for Massive Evacuation in Florida Under Uncertainty of Hurricane Track

飓风是佛罗里达州经常发生的危险事件。对飓风引起的沿海灾害进行更可靠和更准确的模型预测，将为制定有效的飓风疏散行动计划提供更好的信息。该研究项目将整合飓风路径的不确定性分析、飓风引起的沿海灾害模型、紧急疏散模型以及飓风避难所的可达性和容量模型。随着这些模型的新集成和检查关键基础设施的相互依赖性的能力，可以产生更好的动态疏散交通建模。这一科学研究的贡献，从而支持NSF的使命，以促进科学的进步，并推进我们的国家福利的好处，将改善未来的飓风evacuations.This项目集成沿海灾害建模与综合疏散建模，同时考虑飓风路径的不确定性。对于每个飓风路径，进行沿海灾害建模，以确定受飓风影响的地区。结合沿海灾害模型，建立了基于自愿疏散、强制疏散和阴影疏散的应急疏散模型，以避免交通流的延误和瓶颈。网络优化模型最大限度地提高飓风避难所的可达性和容量。选定的历史飓风事件作为案例研究，以测试综合沿海灾害和疏散模型。这项研究使佛罗里达A M大学HBCU机构的学生接触到许多沿海灾害和紧急救援问题，从灾害评估到道路网络的恢复力，提高了本科和研究生课程的教育和研究质量。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Hurricanes are frequent hazardous events in the State of Florida. More reliable and more accurate model predictions of hurricane-induced coastal hazards will provide better information for the development of effective operational plans for hurricane evacuations. This research project will integrate uncertainty analysis of hurricane tracks, hurricane-induced coastal hazard models, emergency evacuation models, and models of accessibility and capacity of hurricane shelters. With the new integration of these models and the capability to examine the interdependencies of the critical infrastructures, better dynamic massive-evacuation traffic modeling can be produced. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits that will improve future hurricane evacuations.This project integrates coastal hazard modeling with comprehensive evacuation modeling while considering the uncertainty of hurricane tracks. For each hurricane track, coastal hazard modeling is conducted to identify areas affected by the hurricane. Integrated with coastal hazard modeling, emergency evacuation models are used to develop efficient comprehensive evacuation scenarios to avoid delays and bottlenecks of traffic flows based on the consideration of voluntary evacuation, mandatory evacuation, and shadow evacuation. A network optimization model maximizes the accessibility and capacity of hurricane shelters. Selected historical hurricane events are used as case studies to test the integrated coastal hazard and evacuation models. This research exposes students at the HBCU institution of Florida A&M University to many coastal hazard and emergency relief issues, which range from hazard assessments to resilience of roadway networks, enhancing the quality of education and research for both undergraduate and graduate programs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.