Liquidity, Crises and Stagnation

摘要在过去的几十年里，特别是在2007-10年的全球金融危机之后，人们一直在关注两个主要问题：许多国家的经济增长放缓和国家内部家庭不平等的加剧。尽管对这些观察结果有不同的解释，但关键的潜在现象是生产率增长率的下降和年轻人劳动力市场状况的恶化。这个项目探讨了这些与企业特定技能(无形资本)在工作中的积累有关的问题。该项目还通过考虑金融中介的角色来研究系统性风险。探讨的问题包括危机后长期停滞的原因、金融不稳定的根源，以及可能改善福利和缓解金融危机的货币和金融政策。该项目考虑了一种世代重叠的经济，在这种经济中，熟练工人和非熟练劳动力对生产至关重要。与实物资本不同，无形资本(技能)不能在世代之间直接转移。年轻工人通过熟练的老工人提供的在职培训积累无形资产。在模型中，输入是老技术工人的技能、年轻实习生的学习能力以及老技术工人和实习生分配给培训的时间。结果，即年轻学员获得的技能，会受到特殊冲击的影响。这个项目计划表明，当年轻的实习生不致力于留在相同的公司并偿还债务时，年轻工人的初始天赋和能力的微小差异会导致无形资产和收入积累的巨大不平等。此外，对捐赠或承诺程度的负面冲击预计将导致持续的停滞和不平等加剧。该项目还开发了一个包括预期和已实现的银行挤兑的金融中介的宏观经济模型。这项研究促进了对危机事件的理解，并指出了预测危机的局限性。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractIn the last few decades, especially after the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-10, there has been two major concerns: slower growth of many countries and rising inequality across households within countries. Although there are different proposed explanations for these observations, the key underlying phenomena is the declining growth rate of productivity and worsening labor market conditions for youth. This project explores these issues in relation to the accumulation of firm-specific skills (intangible capital) on the job. The project also looks at systemic risk by considering the role of financial intermediaries. The questions that are explored are reasons of long stagnation after a crisis, the sources of financial instability, and monetary and financial policies that may improve welfare and mitigate financial crisis.The project considers an overlapping generations economy in which skilled workers are essential for production along with unskilled labor. Unlike physical capital, intangible capital (skill) cannot be directly transferred between generations. Young workers accumulate the intangibles through on-the-job training offered by skilled old workers. In the model, inputs are the skill of skilled old workers, the learning ability of young trainees and the amount of time both skilled old workers and trainees allocate for training. The outcome, skill acquired by the young trainees, is subject to idiosyncratic shocks. This project plans to show that when young trainees are not committed to staying in the same firms and repaying their debt, a small difference in initial endowment and ability of young workers leads to a large inequality in accumulation of intangibles and income. Furthermore, a negative shock to endowment or the degree of commitment is expected to generate a persistent stagnation and a rise in inequality. The project also develops a macroeconomic model with financial intermediaries that incorporates anticipated and realized bank runs. This study advances the understanding of crisis events and points out the limitation of predicting crises.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.