Monetary Policy, Demographics and the Business Cycle

摘要随着美国婴儿潮一代的退休和世界人口年龄结构的变化，了解老龄化如何影响宏观经济政策变得越来越重要。这个项目记录了年龄分布的变化如何影响收入和就业对货币政策的反应。初步结果显示，年轻居民较多的州似乎对货币政策不那么敏感，而中年居民较多的州似乎对货币政策更敏感。该项目探索了这种差异的根本原因，并利用这些结果构建了更准确地反映所观察到的人口变化的经济模型。这项研究提高了人们对货币政策如何影响人口结构变化对经济的影响的理解。因此，该项目有助于美联储和私营部门预测美国人口老龄化给经济带来的变化。同样，这项研究对年龄构成发生变化的其他经济体的货币政策也有影响。该项目以美国各州为实验室，探索年龄分布如何影响货币政策。这项拟议的研究着眼于收入和就业等州一级变量对货币政策举措的反应。然后，这些反应与州的年龄构成有关，同时出于其他原因控制州可能不同的原因。初步结果表明，在一个中年居民较多的州，所有年龄段的收入对利率的反应都更大。这些初步结果表明，对一个人来说，最重要的不是他们自己的年龄，而是他们所在州的年龄分布。该提案进一步探讨了驱动这种敏感性的机制。潜在的机制包括建筑业和业主S的收入对中年人的比例更敏感，以及不同年龄段需求弹性的差异。在提案的理论部分，实证结果被用来构建准确反映我们观察到的人口影响的经济模型。明确考虑人口统计学因素有助于提高对货币政策传导的理解，并随着人口老龄化和婴儿潮一代的退休而对经济产生更广泛的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractUnderstanding how aging affects macroeconomic policy becomes increasingly important as baby-boomers retire in the U.S. and there are shifts in the age-composition of population in the world. This project documents how changes in age distribution affects the response of incomes and employment to monetary policy. Preliminary results indicate that states with many young residents appear less sensitive to monetary policy, whereas states with many middle-aged residents appear more sensitive. The project explores the underlying reasons of such differences and uses these results to construct models of the economy that more accurately reflect the demographic changes observed. The research improves the understanding of how monetary policy impacts the economy in relation to demographic changes. Thus, the project helps the Federal Reserve and the private sector anticipate changes to the economy brought about by an aging US population. Similarly, the research has implications for monetary policies of other economies where there are shifts in age-composition. The project uses the U.S. states as a laboratory to explore how age distribution influences monetary policy. The proposed research looks at how state level variables such as income and employment respond to monetary policy initiatives. These responses are then related to the age composition of the state, while controlling for other reasons that states may differ. Preliminary results indicate that incomes of all age groups respond more to interest rates in a state with more middle-aged residents. These preliminary results indicate that what matters most to an individual is not their own age, but the age distribution of the state in which they live. The proposal further looks at the mechanism that drives this sensitivity. Potential mechanisms include greater sensitivity of construction and proprietor?s income to the proportion of the middle aged and differences in the elasticity of demand across age groups. In the theoretical component of the proposal, empirical results are used to construct models of the economy that accurately reflect the demographic influences we observe. Explicitly considering demographics improves the understanding of monetary policy transmission and has broader implications on the economy as population ages and baby boomers retire.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.