NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: The climate impacts on Alaskan and Yukon rivers, fish, and communities as told through co-produced scenarios

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。这个奖项部分实现了这一目标。阿拉斯加和加拿大的北部社区依靠多产的渔业。对于这些社区中的许多人来说，河流被用来进入渔场和狩猎场，并在无冰季节和冬季在河冰上运输物资。随着北极及其河流持续变暖，对人类、渔业和冬季旅行走廊的最终影响是高度不确定的。提高对正在发生的和未来可能发生的变化的了解，需要土著群体和来自不同科学学科的研究人员之间的密切合作。该项目是由科罗拉多大学博尔德分校北极和高山研究所（INSTAAR）、美国地质调查局（USGS）、育空河部落间流域委员会（YRITWC）、国家大气研究中心（NCAR）、北亚利桑那大学部落环境专业人员研究所（ITEP）和两所加拿大主要大学合作完成的。育空河流域监测委员会是一个由74个第一民族和部落组成的非营利组织，负责对育空河流域进行监测。三名土著实习生正在与YRITWC和美国地质勘探局的研究人员和工作人员合作，用自动水质传感器加强社区和联邦河流监测网络。研究人员正在使用这些新数据来监测河流状况和变化，并改进对河流、冰和鱼的计算机模拟。在进行监测的社区中，与土著K-12学生的联系将包括巡回讲座和一个问科学家网站。在第一年，将成立一个土著咨询委员会，就研究方向和改进提供意见，并确保产生可用的成果。重要的是，理事会将在项目第三年指导为期两天的北极河流首脑会议的议程，并选择42名土著社区成员获得奖学金参加首脑会议。峰会将汇集部落和第一民族资源管理者、北极和北方社区成员，以及学术界、联邦、州和省的研究人员，统一北极河流的知识状况，形成一个由观察员、调查人员、知识持有者和管理人员组成的社区。峰会的成果将包括由所有与会者共同撰写的白皮书。NCAR和CU的研究人员正在对阿拉斯加和加拿大西部的历史和潜在的未来气候条件进行天气、河流流量、河冰和水温的计算机模拟。美国地质勘探局和科罗拉多大学的科学家正在利用这些数据来评估北极河鱼物种面临的潜在风险。项目结果将通过由所有调查人员和社区成员共同开发的联合制作的情景进行交流，旨在使北极变化和潜在社会影响的未来情景具体化，并与广大受众相关。因此，该项目正在评估气候驱动的环境变化如何影响对社会具有重要意义的鱼类栖息地和北极河流的河冰运输走廊。在北方地区，温度、降水、融雪和水流时间、冰盖、永久冻土、水文连通性、河流地球化学和地下水的变化特征不明显，对河流和鱼类的综合影响尚未得到严重解决。该项目正在促进对陆地水文变化及其对北极河流、鱼类和社区的潜在影响的集体理解。该项目通过以社区为基础的土著居民河流监测、土著居民参与和监督、民族志方法以及气候、水文、河冰和鱼类生物能源模型方面的进展，促进知识合作生产。本土知识（IK）和西方科学（WS）将用于共同开发过去和可能的未来条件的情景。由部落环境专家、YRITWC、美国地质勘探局和土著咨询委员会共同开发的北极河流峰会，确定IK和WS的河流和鱼类基线条件。这包括对主要河流进行连续的水质测量，以观察水文条件并指导模型的开发。区域北极系统模式和群落陆地系统模式通过一系列基于过程的模式耦合来模拟河流冰和水温。通过基线条件验证的历史再分析和未来气候情景进行了模拟，并使用鱼类生物能量学模型来评估共同确定的北极河流鱼类物种的脆弱性。具有过去事件、变化、社区挑战和适应成功知识的丰富情景将提供独特的背景，以最好地传达未来模式预测及其对北极社会、建筑和自然环境的影响。该项目将本土知识、气候和水文建模技术与河流冰、溪流温度和鱼类模型的并行进展相结合，共同确定了监测、绘制地图、建模、评估和交流北极和北方水文、河流和鱼类在土著文化、生计、交通和生存方面的气候敏感性的机会。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.Northern communities in Alaska and Canada rely upon productive fisheries. For many of these communities, rivers are used to access fishing and hunting grounds and to transport supplies during ice-free seasons and over river-ice in winter. As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, the ultimate impacts on people, their fisheries and winter travel corridors are highly uncertain. Improved understanding of the ongoing and possible future changes requires close partnership among Native groups and researchers from diverse scientific disciplines. This project is a collaboration among the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado Boulder (CU), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) at North Arizona University (NAU), and two major Canadian universities. The YRITWC is a non-profit organization of 74 First Nations and Tribes that conducts monitoring of the Yukon River Watershed. Three Indigenous interns are working with YRITWC and USGS researchers and staff to enhance the community-based and federal river monitoring networks with automated water quality sensors. The new data are being used by researchers to monitor river conditions and change and to improve computer simulations of rivers, ice, and fish. Outreach to Indigenous K-12 students in the communities where monitoring is being conducted will include traveling lectures and an ask-scientists website. A Native Advisory Council will be formed in Year 1 to provide input into research directions and refinements and to ensure the production of useable outcomes. Importantly, the Council will guide the agenda of a two-day Arctic Rivers Summit in project Year 3 and the selection of 42 Indigenous community members to receive a scholarship to attend the Summit. The Summit will bring together Tribal and First Nation resource managers, Arctic and Boreal community members, and academic, federal, state, and provincial researchers to unify the state of knowledge on Arctic Rivers as a community of observers, investigators, knowledge holders, and stewards. Results from the Summit will include a white paper co-authored by all attendees. Researchers from NCAR and CU are conducting computer simulations of weather, streamflow, river ice, and water temperature for historical and potential future climate conditions over Alaska and western Canada. The data are being used by USGS and CU scientists to assess potential risks to Arctic river fish species. The project results will be communicated through co-produced scenarios jointly developed by all investigators and community members and designed to make future scenarios of Arctic change and potential societal impacts tangible and relatable to a broad audience. Thus, the project is assessing how socially important fish habitat and river-ice transport corridors of Arctic rivers may be impacted by climate-driven environmental changes.Changes in temperature, precipitation, snowmelt and streamflow timing, ice-cover, permafrost, hydrologic connectivity, river geochemistry, and groundwater are poorly characterized in northern regions, and the integrated effects on rivers and fish are critically unresolved. This project is advancing collective understanding of terrestrial hydrologic change and the potential impacts on rivers, fish, and communities in the Arctic. The project facilitates knowledge co-production through Indigenous community-based monitoring of rivers, Native engagement and oversight, ethnographic methods, and advances in climate, hydrologic, and river-ice, and fish bioenergetic models. Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and Western Science (WS) will be used to co-develop scenarios of past and plausible future conditions. An Arctic Rivers Summit co-developed by Tribal Environmental experts, YRITWC, USGS, and a Native Advisory Council identifying IK and WS baseline conditions of rivers and fish. This includes continuous water quality measurements of major rivers to observe hydrologic conditions and guide model development. The Regional Arctic System Model and the Community Terrestrial Systems Model are coupled to simulate river ice and water temperature with a chain of process-based models. Historical reanalysis, verified against baseline conditions, and future climate scenarios are simulated, and a fish bioenergetics model is being used to assess vulnerabilities of co-identified river-run Arctic fish species. Rich scenarios with IK of past events, changes, community challenges and adaptation successes will provide unique context to best communicate future model projections and impacts on the social, built and natural Arctic environment. Combining IK, climate and hydrologic modeling techniques with parallel advances in river ice, stream temperature, and fish models, the project collectively identifies convergent opportunities to monitor, map, model, assess, and communicate climate sensitivities of Arctic and boreal hydrology, rivers, and fish with respect to Indigenous culture, livelihood, transportation, and subsistence.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.