SWQU: Improving Space Weather Predictions with Data-Driven Models of the Solar Atmosphere and Inner Heliosphere

太阳风是从太阳发射的带电粒子流，是地球和整个太阳系空间天气的关键驱动力。当太阳大气层中的扰动（称为日冕物质抛射）到达地球磁层时，就会发生极端空间天气事件。空间气象现象可能造成对空间和地面上的人和仪器有害的条件。因此，准确预报空间天气对我们依赖技术的社会越来越重要，在规划和执行月球和火星任务时也至关重要。该项目将开发新一代软件，能够对从太阳到地球轨道（内日光层）进行近实时建模，并预测强烈的空间天气事件。该项目开发的工具不仅可以大大提高目前运行的空间气象模型的准确性和性能，而且还可以让更广泛的科学界试验和扩展这些工具，以创造最终可能对业务活动产生变革性影响的新能力。这项工作还将在复杂的湍流等离子体系统的计算和模拟方面实现飞跃，预计将在空间物理学和天体物理学等几个领域产生影响。项目团队包括美国大学、NASA中心、国家实验室和私营部门的早期职业和高级研究人员; NASA将为非学术合作机构提供支持。太阳风的结构分为快速和慢速流是地磁活动的周期性来源。最大的地磁暴是由CME通过太阳风传播并与太阳风相互作用引起的。行星际磁场与日冕物质抛射相关的激波和脉冲太阳耀斑的联系决定了太阳高能粒子的传播方向。因此，对背景太阳风中的气流相互作用以及通过太阳风传播的日冕物质抛射进行数据驱动的建模是空间天气预报的必要组成部分。目前，NOAA空间天气预报中心使用经验驱动模型预测背景太阳风和CME到达时间。该项目的目标是开发一个数据驱动的、与时间相关的模型，该模型将改进当前的最新技术水平。新模型将包括：1）表面通量传输模型，2）位场求解器，3）MHD太阳风模型。它将提供更精确的解决方案，并可在大规模并行计算系统上扩展，包括图形处理器单元。该项目的产品将为涉及多个不连续性的复杂等离子体系统的计算和模拟提供一个飞跃。开发的软件也将是有用的天体物理学问题拥有一个独特的球形几何，包括系外行星，早期太阳和类太阳恒星。该奖项是NSF-NASA联合试点计划的一部分，该计划旨在开发下一代空间天气数据驱动模型软件（SWQU）。 所有因该奖项而开发的软件将由获奖者免费提供用于非商业用途;软件许可证将允许免费修改和重新分发软件用于非商业用途。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Solar wind, a stream of charged particles emitted from the Sun, is a key driver of space weather at Earth and throughout the solar system. Extreme space weather events occur when disturbances in the Sun’s atmosphere, called coronal mass ejections (CMEs), reach the Earth’s magnetosphere. Space weather phenomena can create conditions hazardous for humans and instruments in space and on the ground. Accurately forecasting space weather is thus increasingly important for our technology-dependent society and will be critical while planning and operating missions to the Moon and Mars. This project will develop a new generation of software capable of near real-time modeling from the Sun to Earth's orbit (inner heliosphere) and predicting intense space weather events. The tools developed by this project can not only dramatically improve the accuracy and performance of currently operational space weather models, but also allow the broader scientific community to experiment with and extend these tools to create new capabilities that could eventually be transformational for operational activity. This work will also provide a leap forward in the computation and simulation of complex, turbulent plasma systems and is expected to have impact in several areas, including space physics and astrophysics. The project team includes both early-career and senior researchers at U.S. universities, NASA centers, national labs, and in the private sector; support for the non-academic collaborating institutions is to be provided by NASA.The structuring of the solar wind into fast and slow streams is the source of recurrent geomagnetic activity. The largest geomagnetic storms are caused by CMEs propagating through and interacting with the solar wind. The connection of the interplanetary magnetic field to CME-related shocks and impulsive solar flares determines where solar energetic particles propagate. Therefore, data-driven modeling of stream interactions in the background solar wind, and CMEs propagating through it, is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. At present NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts the background solar wind and CME arrival times using empirically driven models. The goal of this project is to develop a data-driven, time-dependent model that will improve the current state of the art. The new model will consist of: 1) a surface flux transport model, 2) potential field solver, and 3) an MHD solar wind model. It will provide more accurate solutions and be scalable on massively parallel computing systems, including Graphic Processor Units. Products from this project will provide a leap forward in the computation and simulation of complex plasma systems involving multiple discontinuities. The developed software will also be useful for astrophysical problems possessing a distinct spherical geometry, including exoplanets, early sun, and sun-like stars. This award is made as a part of the joint NSF-NASA pilot program on Next Generation Software for Data-driven Models of Space Weather with Quantified Uncertainties (SWQU). All software developed as a result of this award will be made available by the awardee free of charge for non-commercial use; the software license will permit modification and redistribution of the software free of charge for non-commercial use.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.