Climate change and escaping ornamentals: Predicting the next generation of European plant invaders

欧洲大多数已归化和有害的外来入侵植物物种都是出于观赏目的而被故意引入的。因此，很可能未来重要的植物入侵者将从目前生长在我们花园中的观赏植物中招募。此外，气候变化可能会为许多观赏植物创造越来越合适的条件，特别是那些起源于较温暖地区的观赏植物。这可能会导致以前没有问题的观赏植物的新入侵。在这些沉睡的入侵者逃逸和传播之前识别它们将是非常可取的，并将使利益相关者(例如入侵植物管理者、观赏植物行业)在防止未来的入侵方面领先一步。我们由四个小组组成的联盟将结合建模和实验来研究大量的观赏植物，并评估这些物种中哪些最有可能在气候变化下入侵，以及欧洲哪些地区最有可能受到入侵的影响。研究物种将由该联盟根据观赏物种名单、与项目相关的标准，如其他地方的入侵程度和数据可获得性来选择。所有小组将使用一套由50个研究物种组成的共同核心，包括杂交和非杂交观赏植物，并将在八个工作包的互补性任务上密切合作。在WP1中，我们将全面概述目前在欧洲经常作为园林植物种植的观赏外来物种。我们将使用这个数据库来测试哪些物种的特征与目前欧洲的归化成功有关。最重要的是，这个数据库将用于选择我们将包括在实验(WP2、WP3、WP4)和建模(WP5、WP6、WP7)工作包中的50个观赏性外星人的核心集合。在实验研究中，我们将经验性地测试观赏外来植物如何对变暖(WP2)和降水变化(WP3)做出反应。此外，WP3将测试不同品种之间的杂交和遗传变异如何有助于入侵潜力。与WP4、WP2和WP3一起，WP2和WP3也将为模型研究提供参数，并为后者的结果提供基本事实。在模型研究中，我们将开发一个入侵模拟模型(WP5)，并使用景观模拟模型和扩散模型方法来评估某些观赏物种分别在景观(WP6)和欧洲范围(WP7)建立景观的可能性。这些模型还将使我们能够评估哪些类型的栖息地和哪些地区最容易受到入侵。模拟研究也将有助于设计实验，模拟结果将为实验研究中的测试提供预测。最后，在WP8中，我们将综合结果，并将其传播给相关的利益相关者，如观赏植物行业、园艺零售商、园艺协会和政策制定者。

Most naturalized and harmful invasive alien plant species in Europe have been intentionally introduced for ornamental purposes. Thus, it is likely that important future plant invaders will be recruited from those ornamentals currently growing in our gardens. In addition, climate change might create increasingly suitable conditions for many ornamental plants, particularly those with origins in warmer regions. This may result in new invasions by formerly unproblematic ornamentals. Identifying such sleeping invaders before they escape and spread would be highly desirable, and would give stakeholders (e.g. invasive-plant managers, the ornamental plant industry) a head start in preventing future invasions. Our consortium of four groups will combine modelling with experiments to study a large number of ornamental plants and assess which of these species will most likely become invasive, and which regions of Europe will most likely be affected by invasions, under climate change. The study species will be selected by the consortium based on ornamental species lists, project-relevant criteria such as invasiveness elsewhere and data availability. All groups will use a common core set of 50 study species, including both hybrid and non-hybrid ornamentals, and will work in close cooperation on complementary tasks along eight work packages. In WP1, we will make a comprehensive overview of those ornamental alien species that are currently frequently grown in Europe as garden plants. We will use this database to test which species characteristics are associated with current naturalization success in Europe. Most importantly, this database will be used to select the core set of 50 ornamental aliens that we will include in the experimental (WP2, WP3, WP4) and modelling (WP5, WP6, WP7) working packages. In the experimental studies, we will test empirically how ornamental alien plants respond to warming (WP2) and changes in precipitation (WP3). In addition, WP3 will test how hybridization and genetic variation among cultivars contributes to invasion potential. Together with WP4, WP2 and WP3 will also provide parameters for the modelling studies, and ground-truth the findings of the latter. In the modelling studies, we will develop an invasion-simulation model (WP5), and use landscape-simulation modelling and a spread-modelling approach to assess the probability that certain ornamental species will establish at respectively the landscape (WP6) and European-wide scale (WP7). These models will also allow us to assess which types of habitats and which regions will be most vulnerable to invasions. The modelling studies will also help to design the experiments, and the modelling results will provide predictions for the tests in the experimental studies. Finally, in WP8, we will synthesize the results, and disseminate them to the relevant stakeholders, such as the ornamental-plant industry, garden-plant retailers, horticultural societies and policy makers.