CAREER: Understanding the Drivers and Consequences of Personal Adaptation Behavior to Environmental Extremes

近年来观察到了不断升级的极端环境事件--在规模、频率和/或对社区影响方面极端的天气和气候事件--预计本世纪还将增加。这些极端情况(例如，野火、热浪、风暴等)据估计，每年导致15万人死亡，世界卫生组织保守地预测，在2030年至2050年期间，每年将导致25万人死亡。应对这些不断升级的极端环境将需要个人和家庭进行适应，以减少人类的痛苦(例如，暴露在野火烟雾中的慢性呼吸系统疾病)和死亡(例如，由于急性烟雾暴露)。前所未有的极端范围使人们很难适应，特别是对于能够获得较少资源的低收入有色人种(POC)来说。高效、低成本、易于获取的决策支持工具，如通过智能手机应用程序部署的决策支持工具，可以在帮助人们了解极端行为不断升级的本质并激励他们采取能够改善个人结果、有助于增强社会韧性的行为方面发挥重要作用。然而，关于随着事件的展开所经历的暴露--不受时间或结果知识的偏见--如何影响心理社会因素、适应行为和个人结果，以及决策支持如何影响这一背景下的决策，人们知之甚少。该学院早期职业发展(Career)综合研究和教育计划的目标是(1)促进对决策支持工具如何影响适应行为的基本理解，在面对随着时间的推移实时暴露于不断升级的极端情况下的心理社会先行因素，特别是在低收入POC人群中，(2)推进环境极端适应行为模型的概念化和测试，以及(3)改变我们培训和教育下一代行为决策科学家的方式，让他们与相关利益相关者--特别是那些可能受益最大的低收入POC人群--共同制作和部署决策支持工具，以更有效地激励产生预期适应结果的适应行为。研究目标将通过进行纵向随机对照试验来实现，以确定通过基于智能手机应用的决策支持工具提供的“积极影响”或“社会比较”野火烟雾干预是否可以有效地增强适应行为(戴面罩、遮挡、改善家庭或工作场所)和预期的适应结果(改善健康、随着时间的推移，来自低收入POC社区的约720名旧金山湾区居民在实际暴露(挥发性有机化合物、NO2、颗粒物)的背景下采取了其他适应措施，如防火)。我的教育目标将通过开发和测试研究-教育-实践课程来实现，该课程培训行为决策科学学者如何共同制作和部署有效的决策支持工具，并吸引和留住代表不足的少数族裔、低收入和第一代学生和年轻研究人员。拟议的计划将推进环境极端适应行为模型，有助于有效地制定政策，适应环境极端环境，并有助于培训下一代行为决策科学学者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Escalating environmental extremes – weather and climate events that are extreme in magnitude, frequency, and/or impact on communities – have been observed in recent years and are predicted to increase over this century. These extremes (e.g., wildfires, heat waves, storms, etc.) contribute to an estimated 150,000 deaths each year, and the World Health Organization conservatively projects they will result in 250,000 deaths annually between 2030 and 2050. Addressing these escalating environmental extremes will require personal and household adaptation to reduce human suffering (e.g., chronic respiratory ailments due to wildfire smoke exposure) and death (e.g., as a result of acute smoke exposure). The unprecedented scope of extremes makes it difficult for people to adapt, particularly for low-income persons of color (POC) who have access to fewer resources. Effective, low-cost, easily-accessible decision support tools such as those deployed through smartphone applications could play an important role in helping people understand the escalating nature of extremes and motivate them to adopt behaviors that result in improved personal outcomes contributing to greater societal resiliency. Yet, little is known about how exposure experienced as events unfold – unbiased by time or outcome knowledge – affects psychosocial factors, adaptation behaviors, and personal outcomes, and how decision support effects decision making in this context. The objectives of this Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) integrated research and education plan are to (1) advance fundamental understanding of how decision support tools affect adaptation behavior given psychosocial antecedents in the face of real-time exposure to escalating extremes over time, particularly among low-income POC populations, (2) advance the conceptualization and testing of environmental extremes adaptation behavior models, and (3) transform how we train and educate the next generation of behavioral decision scientists to co-produce and deploy decision support tools with relevant stakeholders – especially among those low-income POC populations that may benefit the most–to more effectively motivate adaptation behaviors that yield desired adaptation outcomes.The research objectives will be achieved by conducting a longitudinal randomized controlled trial to determine whether a “positive affect” or “social comparison” wildfire smoke intervention, delivered via a smartphone app-based decision support tool, can effectively enhance adaptation behaviors (face mask wearing, sheltering, home or workplace improvements) and desired adaptation outcomes (improved health, adoption of other adaptation measures such as fire protection) in the context of actual exposure (volatile organic compounds, NO2, particulate matter) among approximately 720 San Francisco Bay Area residents from low-income POC communities over time. My educational objective will be achieved by developing and testing a Research-Education-Practice curriculum that trains behavioral decision science scholars on co-producing and deploying effective decision support tools, and attracts and retains underrepresented minorities, low-income, and first-generation students and young investigators. The proposed plan will advance adaptation behavior models for environmental extremes, contribute to effective policy-making environmental extremes adaptation, and contribute to the training of the next generation of behavioral decision science scholars.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.