Collaborative Research: Diagnosing Global Climatic Responses to Large Volcanic Eruptions in Climate Reconstructions and Model Simulations

该项目的具体研究工作涉及对大规模火山喷发后温度和水文气候的时空变化提供基于代理的全球估计。由于新的古气候数据同化产品，现在有可能获得替代估计的对火山活动的气候反应的全球图景，这可能为火山如何影响地表温度、水文气候和气候动态的变化提供新的见解。该项目的最终目的是量化风险，改善社会对受大规模火山喷发影响的气候变化的准备情况。研究小组打算通过评估多个古气候数据同化结果和实地实况的反应在时间上的持久性来实现该项目的研究目标，并对照其他最先进的替代重建和文件证据进行估计。研究人员还将描述动态气候反应在重建的海面温度和大气压力指数以及热带辐合区(ITCZ)位置中的表现。所有这些反应都将按季节和喷发纬度进行评估。基于代理的估计将反过来与普通时代的模拟集合进行比较，以表征对火山喷发的动态响应，并了解基于代理的产品、火山强迫估计和耦合气候模型中的相关不确定性。潜在的更广泛的影响包括培训两名研究生，为本科生举办旨在鼓励科学事业的年度研讨会活动，以及通过AGU Bridge计划招募女性和未被充分代表的少数族裔。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The specific research effort for this project involves providing proxy-based global estimates of the spatiotemporal changes in temperature and hydroclimate after large volcanic eruptions. A global picture of proxy-estimated climate responses to volcanism is now possible because of new paleoclimate data assimilation products, which may provide new insights into how volcanoes influence changes in surface temperatures, hydroclimate, and climate dynamics. The ultimate aim of the project is to quantify risks and improve societal preparedness for climatic variations influenced by large volcanic eruptions.The research team intends to achieve the project’s research goals by assessing the temporal persistence of responses across multiple paleoclimate data assimilation outputs and ground-truth the estimates against other state-of-the-art proxy reconstructions and documentary evidence. The researchers will also characterize how dynamic climate responses are manifest in reconstructed sea-surface temperature and atmospheric pressure indices, as well as the positioning of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). All of these responses will be assessed seasonally and in terms of eruption latitudes. The proxy-based estimates will in turn be compared to an ensemble of Common Era simulations to characterize the dynamical responses to volcanic eruptions and understand associated uncertainties in the proxy-based products, volcanic forcing estimates, and the coupled climate models.The potential Broader Impacts include training two graduate students, hosting an annual workshop event for undergraduates aimed at encouraging careers in science, and recruiting women and underrepresented minorities through the AGU Bridge Program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.