Collaborative Research: Diagnosing the Timing and Drivers of Northeastern Caribbean Holocene Droughts with Sinkhole Lake Records

本世纪，世界80%的地区可能面临粮食生产、能源和国家安全、人类健康和生态系统所需的水资源不足的问题。联合国估计，到2080年，加勒比地区与气候变化有关的损失将达到112亿美元，其中38亿美元来自干旱。加勒比海和美国东南部的降雨与类似的海洋和大气因素有关。然而，降雨的地质记录记录表明，加勒比地区在过去几千年里发生了持续数十年至数百年的极端干旱。该项目旨在通过研究和在3个机构教授美国学生来确定和交流这些特大干旱的原因和驱动因素。它将帮助美国、发展中国家和小岛屿国家减轻未来的水安全风险。气候模型对本世纪美国东南部和加勒比海地区降雨量变化的预测目前尚不明确，而加勒比海地区现有的古气候档案记录了极端的特大干旱，其严重程度在仪器时代是没有观察到的。这些干旱在整个加勒比地区显然并不一致，其原因仍然知之甚少。在这里，研究人员建议开发一个长期降雨记录网络，从北方加勒比海的关键部分，使用现有的地质技术和最先进的气候建模，以诊断加勒比干旱的气候驱动因素。该奖项由古气候变化展望计划和国际科学与工程办公室共同资助。

This century, 80% of the world could face insufficient water necessary for food production, energy and national security, human health, and ecosystems. The United Nations estimates that Caribbean losses related to climate change by 2080 will be $11.2B, with $3.8B from drought. Rainfall in the Caribbean and American southeast is linked to similar ocean and atmospheric factors. However, geologic records of rainfall document extreme Caribbean megadroughts lasting tens to hundreds of years over the last several millennia. This project aims to identify and communicate the causes and drivers of these megadroughts through research and teaching American students at 3 institutions. It will help the United States, developing nations, and small island nations mitigate future water security risks. Climate model forecasts of rainfall changes in the American southeast and Caribbean for this century are currently equivocal, and available paleoclimate archives from the Caribbean document extreme megadroughts with a severity not observed in the instrumental era. These droughts were apparently not uniform across the Caribbean, and their causes remain poorly understood. Here, the investigators propose to develop a network of long-term rainfall records from key portions of the northern Caribbean using established geologic techniques and state-of-the-art climate modeling to diagnose the climatic drivers of Caribbean droughts.This award is cofunded by the Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change Program and the Office of International Science and Engineering.