'As-if thinking': an experimental analysis of human reasoning and decision-making

未能对2005年卡特里娜飓风造成的严重破坏作出充分反应，突显了顺序决策的困难。对这种紧急情况的反应需要详细的应急计划，有必要考虑一种情况的所有可能结果，而不考虑它们的客观概率。该项目采用了一种创新的方法来进行人类推理和决策的实验分析，目的是确定影响对不确定备选方案的推断和决策的机制、因素和边界条件。这项研究将为澳大利亚准备好应对具有不确定结果的不可预测事件并提高澳大利亚科学的声誉提供信息。

The failure to respond adequately to the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 highlighted the difficulty of sequential decision-making. Responses to such emergencies require detailed contingency plans, necessitating a consideration of all possible outcomes of a situation regardless of their objective probability. This project takes an innovative approach to the experimental analysis of human reasoning and decision-making, with the aim of identifying the mechanisms, factors, and boundary conditions affecting inferences and decisions about uncertain alternatives. The research will inform planning for Australia's readiness to respond to unpredictable events with uncertain outcomes and enhance the reputation of Australian science.