MACROECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FISCAL INVESTMENT AND LOAN PROGRAM

本文构建了宏观计量模型，并进行了一些模拟，以确定财政投贷款计划的生产率效应，并考虑该计划在老龄化社会中的作用。我们的研究显示了两个特征的重要性。第一，财政投贷款计划对公共非金融企业（不含住房公共公司）的生产率效应高于对公共金融机构的生产率效应。二是在老龄化社会中，虽然储蓄率下降，但该计划的可用资金增加。

In this study, we have constructed a macroeconmetric model and conducted some simulations to determine productivity effects of Fiscal Investment and LoanProgram and to consider role playd by the program in aging society.Our study has shown the importance of two features. The first is that productivity effects of Fiscal Investment and Loan Program to Public Non-Financial Enterprises (without Housing Public Corporation)is higher than those to Public Financial Institutions.The second is that funds available of the program increase in aging society though the saving rate decreases.