Estimating Fertillity and Infant Mortality in Pre-industrial Japan through Micro-simulation

这个项目试图澄清在德川时期的书门荒町（SAC）中出生登记不足的程度。这是日本历史人口统计中的一个严重问题，因为它妨碍了对生育率和婴儿死亡率等基本人口指数的准确估计。为了解决这个问题，本项目采用了微模拟的方法。与宏观模拟相比，这种方法有几个优点。最重要的是，在微观模拟中，我们可以相对容易地考虑到出生的季节性波动和婴儿的月死亡率等重要因素。项目中使用的生殖过程模型及其计算机程序是基于人口问题研究所和波特和邦格茨的研究。对于模拟的输入数据，我在有信息的地方使用德川时期的数据，但在没有信息的地方使用明治和大正时期的数据。模拟的结果显示，根据婴儿死亡率的高低，出生登记不足的程度从82%到88%不等，因此12%到18%的出生没有登记。这使我们得出结论，从SAC计算出的出生率需要乘以1.15到1.22，才能准确估计德川农民的生育水平。

This project attempts to clarify the degree to which births were under-registered in the shumon aratame-cho (SAC) of the Tokugawa period. This has been a serious problem in Japanese historical demography because it prevents accurate etimation of basic demographic indices such as fertility and infant mortality.I solving this problem, this project employs a micro-similation approarch. This approarch has several advantages over macro-simulation. The most importantis that in micro-simulation, we can take into account relatively easily such important factors as seasonal fluctuation of births and monthly death rates of infants. The model for reproductive process and its computer program used in the project are based on the researhes of the Institute of Population Problems and of Potter and Bongaarts. For input data for the simulation, I use data from the Tokugawa period anywhere information is available, but data of the Meiji and the Taisho periods are used when information is not available.The result of the simulation reveals that the degree of under-registration of births in the SAC ranges from 82 to 88 per cent, depending on the levels of infant mortality, and thus 12 to 18 per cent of births were never recorded. This leads us to conclude that birth rates calculated from the SAC need to be multiplied by 1.15 to 1.22 in order to obtain accurate estimation of fertility levels among Tokugawa peasants.