Economic Analysis of Centralization and Decentralization with Risk Management

我们研究了集中和分散制度下风险管理政策的积极和规范方面。我们还考虑了风险管理政策，即风险在增长模型设置中内生发生。通过将宏观财政和货币政策、社会保障改革和财政分权纳入分析框架，我们明确了风险管理的理想属性。我们调查了主要发达国家的现行再分配政策、社会保障结构和区域经济政策，并根据这些国家的实际政策问题得出了有趣的分析结果。我们在这个问题上运用了政治经济学的方法。众所周知，尽管经济增长带来的污染物等公共不良的非外部性并不一定会增加福利，但减排行为可能会抵消这种非外部性。此外，如果代理人对增长进行了大量评估，并认为没有必要进行减排，那么她就会从增长中获益良多。因此，一个自然的猜想是，增长通常会增加福利，特别是对贫穷的人来说。通过显式地结合最优化减排行为，我们证明了猜想不一定成立。也就是说，贫富差距的缩小可能不会改善环境的数量，这可能会伤害到面临困境解决方案的穷人。我们还表明，如果环境恶化太多，全球经济增长将损害穷国的利益，而且减排技术非常低效，贫穷国家的数量很多。

We have investigated the positive and normative aspects of risk management policy under centralized and decentralized system. We also considered risk management policy where risk occurs endogenously in a growth model setting. By incorporating macro fiscal and monetary policy, social security reform, and fiscal decentralization into the analytical framework, we have clarified the desirable properties of risk management. We investigated the current redistribution policy, the social security structure, and regional economic policy of major developed countries and derived interesting analytical results based on the actual policy issues of these countries. We have used the politico-economic approach to this topic.It is well recognized that although the disexternalities of pubic bads such as pollutants due to economic growth do not necessarily enhance welfare, the abatement behavior may offset such disexternalities. Moreover, if the agent evaluates growth much and conceives no need for conducting abatement, she gains from growth much. Thus, a natural conjecture is that growth normally enhances welfare especially for the poor agent. By explicitly incorporating the optimizing abatement behavior, we showed that the conjecture is not necessarily valid. Namely, a decrease in wealth differentials may not improve the quantity of environment, which could hurt even the poor, who faces a corner solution. We also showed that the worldwide economic growth would hurt the poor country if it deteriorates environment much, and the abatement technology is very inefficient, and the number of poor countries is large.