New mathematical and statistical methods that inform the control of infectious disease outbreaks

新出现的传染病对我们的社会构成持续的威胁，最近的SARS疫情和目前对禽流感的担忧突出表明了这一点。该项目提出的研究将帮助决策者对各种新出现和重新出现的传染病实施有效的边境控制和疫情控制，包括SARS、流感和故意释放天花等传染病。该项目将通过更好地了解不同控制战略的相对优点来加强防范，并提供新的方法，通过有效利用数据，在爆发中动态地指导边界和爆发控制。

Emerging infectious diseases are an ever-present threat to our community, as highlighted by the recent SARS epidemic and current fears concerning avian influenza. The research proposed by this project will help policy makers implement effective border control and outbreak control against a variety of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, including SARS, influenza and the deliberate release of an infectious disease such as smallpox. The project will enhance preparedness through a better understanding of the relative merits of different control strategies, and provide new methodology that can dynamically guide border and outbreak control in the midst of an outbreak by making effective use of data.