The System for Evaluation of Shelter Planning Based on Patterns of the Behavior of Refuge in Urban Earthquake Disaster

本研究以都市地震灾害避难行为模式为基础，探讨避难规划之评估系统，三年之研究结果如下：1）首先分析各地方政府之防灾计画。从避难所的行为和避难所的管理等方面，把握了现有避难所支援系统的计划存在的问题。2）对坂神淡路地震和新泻县地震中的避难所需求进行了检查，提出了避难所的维修计划。3）运用Huff模型，提出了灾民避难选择行为的模拟模型; 4）通过问卷调查，掌握了地震灾民在居住地以外避难的影响因素。5）运用多元分析法，掌握避难寿命与各因素之间的关系。6）为明确避难场所管理的各种支援体系的可能性，通过对NPO的问卷调查，研究了行政性外部支援机构的可能性。最后提出了避难所管理的准备方法.

The study aims to consider the system for evaluation of shelter planning based on patterns of thebehavior of refuge in urban earthquake disaster.The result in three years as follows :1) The anti-disaster plan of each local government was analyzed first. And we grasped the present plans of support system of shelters have much issue in the view of behavior of refuge and the shelter management.2) To propose the maintenance plan of shelters, a requirement about shelters in Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster and Mid Niigata prefecture earthquake disaster was checked. And we did comparison and consideration about the sufferer' s consciousness.3) Using the Huff model, we proposed the simulation model of refugees behavior of choosing shelters.4) By the questionnaire surveys, we grasped factors causing refuge of earthquake victims outside of their residence area. And we estimated its rate in case of a big earthquake in Tokyo.5) Using the multivariate analysis, we grasped the relation of the length of refuge life and factors.6) To clarify the possibility of various support system of shelter management in earthquake disaster, we study the possibility of the administrative outside support organization by the questionnaire survey for NPO. At end and we tried to propose the way of preparing it for the shelter management.