Re-examination of Reliability and Validity of the 'National Burden Ratio' as the Economic-policy Index

1.在现有的比率计算方法中，所谓的“国民负担比率”（税收和社会保障缴款占国民收入的比率）的可靠性和有效性恶化，主要原因是间接税的处理方法不一致。首先，尽管间接税包括在国民负担（分子）中，但在按要素成本计算的国民收入（分母）中却不包括间接税。因此，与使用包括间接税在内的市场价格国民收入作为分母相比，这一比率被高估了。第二，虽然税收制度和国民账户制度在间接税的定义上存在较大差异，但在计算国民负担时采用前者的定义。因此，在计算比率、按市场价格计算的国民收入和国民核算体系对间接税的定义时，应始终采用前者的定义，以提高经济政策指数的可靠性和有效性。在定义所谓的“潜在国民负担率”作为“国民负担率”现值的代理指数时，将一般政府的预算赤字比率加入国民负担率。但是，在立法上相当于公共工程（生产目的）债务的预算赤字的一部分，或者在经济上相当于一般政府资本账户中投资超过储蓄的部分，应该被排除在外，因为它应该有有形的安全保障，如不动产和金融资产。税收和社会保障关系对国民负担率的影响取决于对社会保障福利和负担（缴费）的税收处理，基本分为缴费抵税、全税、福利免税三种。其中，从提高比例的影响来看，以美国为代表的缴费抵税影响最弱，以北欧国家为代表的福利全税影响最强。这一结论表明，如果日本以增加收入和/或提高公平性为理由加强对社会保障福利的征税，国民负担率的大幅上升将是不可避免的。鉴于上述国民负担率的大幅上升，经济政策应该控制的目标指标不是国民负担率，而是经济负担率（对劳动和直接参与生产经济活动的资本的税收负担和社会保障缴款）。少

1.Reliability and validity of the so-called 'national burden ratio' (the ratio of taxes and social security contributions to national income) are deteriorated, in the existing calculation method of the ratio, mainly due to inconsistent treatments of indirect taxes. First, in spite of including indirect taxes in national burden(numerator), these are excluded in national income at factor cost(denominator). In consequence the ratio is simply overestimated in comparison with using national income at market price including indirect taxes as denominator. Second, though the system of taxation and the system of national accounts are considerably different in defining indirect taxes, the former definition is adopted in calculating national burden Therefore, in the calculation the ratio, national income at market price and the SNA's definition of indirect taxes should be consistently adopted to improve reliability and validity of the economic-policy index.2.In definition of the so-called 'latent … More national burden ratio' as a proxy-index of present value of 'national burden ratio', budget deficits ratio of the general government are added to the national burden ratio. However a portion of budget deficits equivalent to public-works(productive-purpose) debts in legislative terms or the excess of investments over savings in capital-account of general government in economic terms should be excluded, because it is supposed to have tangible security such as immovable and financial assets.3.An impact of relations between taxation and social security upon the national burden ratio depends on tax-treatment of the social security benefits and burdens(contributions), which is basically classified into three types : tax-deduction of contributions, full-taxation, of benefits, and tax-exemption of benefits. Among them, in terms of an impact of raising the ratio, tax-deduction of contributions represented by the U.S has the weakest impact, and full-taxation of benefits represented by Nordic countries has the strongest impact. This conclusion suggests that if taxation of social security benefits is strengthened in Japan on the ground of raising revenue and/or improving fairness, the substantial rise in the national burden ratio will be inevitable.4.In view of the substantial rise in the national burden ratio mentioned above, the target index of economic-policy which should be controlled is not the national burden ratio, but the ratio of economic burden(tax burden and social security contribution on labor and capital contributing directly to productive economic activities). Less