Household Car Ownership Simulation Model-Demand for Clear-fuel Vehides-

本研究以日本、美国和中国的家庭调查数据为基础，分析了日本家庭的汽车拥有行为。在日本，家庭拥有的汽车数量有限，家庭成员之间的汽车使用存在竞争。同时车辆类型和主驾驶员的选择模型和模型的车辆行驶里程的基础上，认识到车辆类型的选择和车辆分配给司机是高度相互关联的决定。此外，开发了一个模式选择模型，该模型考虑了车辆每次使用的排他性。多车家庭大行其道，各家各户通过一辆接一辆的更换来改变车队。因此，连续的交易不是独立的，而是高度相关的。交易也受到家庭属性变化的影响。本文在考虑前一次交易影响和家庭属性变化的基础上，分析了家庭的汽车交易行为。在这一阶段，家庭汽车拥有行为不仅受到经济因素的影响，而且还受到心理和社会因素的影响，因为汽车周围的环境是不稳定的，消费者没有拥有汽车的经验。在分析汽车拥有态度因果结构的基础上，建立了一个模型系统。

In this study, we analyzed the household vehicle ownership behavior based on the data set obtained by household survey conducted in Japan, United States, and China.In Japan, the number of the vehicles owned by a household is limited, and its usage is competitive among household members. Simultaneous vehicle type and main driver choice models and models of vehicle miles traveled are developed, based on the recognition that vehicle type choice and the vehicle allocation to drivers are highly inter-related decisions. Also, a mode choice model is developed considering the exclusiveness in the usage of the vehicle at a time.In U.S., Multi-car households are popular, and the households change their fleet by replacing one by one. Thus, the successive transactions are not independent, but highly inter-related. The transactions are also affected by the changes in household attributes. We analyzed the households vehicle transactions behavior considering the effects of the preceding transaction and the changes in household attributes.China is in earlier stages of motorization now. Household vehicle ownership behavior in these stages is governed by not only economic but also psychological and sociological factors, because the circumstances around the vehicle is unstable and the consumers have no experiences owning a vehicle.The study-proposed a concept of "symbolic utility", which refers to psychological satisfaction from vehicle ownership. Based on analyzing the causal structure among attitudes towards vehicle ownership, a model system is developed.