A Study on the Dynamic Prediction Model of Effects by Transportation Planning

1. 本研究的目的：为了评估交通系统改善的长期效果，必须持续预测各方面效果的动态变化过程。在本研究中，为了建立涉及交通系统改善的动态预测模型，我们试图分析各个方面的影响及其相互作用的动态变化，并将其发展为子模型。分析与建模结果：(1)出行行为：通过对名古屋城区铁路开通后的出行调查，分析了交通服务变化导致的出行方式选择行为的动态变化。结果发现，运输服务变更后，模式切换行为并非立即发生，而是持续了相当长的一段时间。(2)居民选择行为：对交通系统改善导致的居民选择行为进行动态预测时需要考虑的各个方面进行了分析和建模。在这些分析和建模中，考虑了以下方面：随着时间的推移，家庭特征的变化；住宅选择行为与地价的交互作用预期效用效应；住房供给效应；时间滞后效应；居住地有无变动。全模型系统：全模型系统能够预测运输系统改善所带来的各个方面的影响，目前还没有得到很好的发展。然而，已经建立了一个预测居住区位动态变化的模型系统。未来，该模型系统将通过纳入出行行为子模型进行扩展。

1. The purpose of this study : In order to evaluate long-term effects of improvements of transportation system it is important to consistently predict the process of dynamic changes in various aspects of effects. In this study, for the purpose of developing dynamic prediction model involved in improvements of transportation system, we attempt to analyse the dynamic changes of various aspects of effects and interactions among them, and develop them as sub-models.2. Results of analyses and modelings :(1)travel behavior : Based on the travel survey carried out after the opening of railway line in the suverbs of Nagoya, dynamic changes of modal choice behavior due to the change in transport services were analysed. As a result, it was found that the modal switching behavior did not occur imediately after the transport service change but continued for considerably long period.(2)residential choice behavior : Various aspects which are considered in dynamic prediction of residential choice behavior caused by improvements of transportation system were analysed and modeled. In these analyses and modelings, following aspects were considered : over time changes of household's characteristics; interaction between residential choice behavior and land-price ; effects of prospective utility ; effects of housing supply; time-lags in effects; presence of residential change.3. Total model system : Total model system which predicts all aspects of effects caused by improvements of transport system have not been developed well. However, a model system which predicts dynamic changes of residential locations have been developed. In the future, this model system will be extended by incorporating travel behavior sub-models.