Econometric Studies on Projections of Japanese Agricultural Structure

大米和畜牧业被选为短期预测的对象。主要结果如下：(1)通过近期的政策改革，大米流通基本放开。因此，价格变得在很大程度上反映了供需关系。(2)价格政策的作用降低，设定了“标准品质”(较低等级)大米的最低价格。(3)大米流通制度的进一步放开将严重影响农业结构。牛肉(1)国内牛肉(和酒)需求强劲增长的同时，进口牛肉的需求却停滞不前。根据计量经济学检验，这反映了质量的差异。(2)牛肉贸易自由化后，预计更高质量牛肉的进口将会扩大。这可能会压制国内牛肉行业。(3)肉牛养殖的生产结构也将受到很大影响。

Rice and livestock sectors were selected for the short term projections. The results can be summarized as follows :Rice(1) The rice distribution was basically liberalized by the recent policy reforms. As a result, the prices became to considerably reflect the demand and supply relationship.(2) The role of price policy reduced to set floor prices of "standard quality" (lower graded) rices.(3) The agricultural structure will be seriously affected by the further liberalization of the rice distribution system.Beef(1) While the demand for domestic beef (wagyu) has been strongly expanding, the demand for imported beef has been stagnating. According to an econometric test, this reflects the quality difference.(2) The import of higher quality beef was forcasted to expand after the beef trade liberalization. This might suppress the domestic beef sector.(3) The production structure of beef cattle breeding and raising will be also largely affected.