Econometric Analysis on the socio-economic mechanism of tropical deforestation

热带森林砍伐被认为是全球环境问题中最重要的问题。它是由许多分层的人类活动造成的，如轮作耕作、木材贸易和其他商业性伐木、木材燃烧和其他当地采伐、退耕还草和火灾。在今年的研究中，我们通过收集文献对热带森林砍伐的机理进行了研究，以加深对热带森林砍伐的认识，并尝试建立计量模型。目前，联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)正在进行热带森林资源评估，以1990年为研究年。虽然计划在1992年公布这项估计数字，但至今仍未公布。粮农组织本身认识到，以1980年为研究年并于1982年公布的旧数据需要修订，使用旧数据进行研究的意义有限。关于新的数据，粮农组织报告了几份中期报告。区域数据是国家数据的总和，但国家数据本身没有。由于这些数据的限制，我们无法进行全面的计量分析。相反，我们调查了给定的数据区域。我们发现，热带森林砍伐在经济增长迅速的东南亚比人口增长迅速的非洲和南亚更明显。对于薪材消费来说，人口是一个关键因素，而对于工业木材消费来说，一个关键因素是国民收入。我们发现，人口增加对热带森林砍伐的影响有限，这与通常认为人口压力是热带森林砍伐的主要原因相矛盾。我们希望使用国际数据以及国内数据进行更多调查，以评估人口的社会流动。

Tropical deforestation is considered to be the most important among the global environment problems. It is caused by many layered human activities, such as shifting cultivation, wood trade and other commercial logging, fire wood consumption and other local harvesting, conversion to arable and pasture lands, and fire. In this year's research, we have studied the mechanism of tropical deforestation through collected literature so that we have better understanding and we tried to build a econometric model.Currently Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO) is undertaking estimation of tropical forest resources, taking 1990 as study year. Although it was planned to publish the estimate in 1992, it has not been published yet. FAO itself recognized that the old data taking 1980 as study year and published in 1982 need revision, and the study using the old data would have limited meanings. As to the new data, FAO has reported a couple of interim reports. Regional figures, as sums of country data, were given there but country data themselves were not. Because of these data limitations, we cannot carry out full-scale econometric analysis. Instead we investigated the given data region wise.We have found that tropical deforestation is more apparent in South- Eastern Asia where economic growth is rapid than in Africa and Southern Asia where population growth is rapid. For fuelwood consumption population is a key factor and for industrial wood consumption a key factor is national income. Our finding that population increases have limited influence on tropical deforestation contradicts the ordinary belief that population pressure is the main cause of tropical deforestation.We would like to investigate more using inter-national data, as well as intra-national data to evaluate social movement of population.