Development of a fuzzy expert system for predicting the probable failure on mountain slopes

提出了一种边坡可能破坏咨询专家系统。使用人工智能语言PROLOG。在Dempster & Shafer理论中提出的基本概率被用来解释伴随特定领域知识而来的不准确性。基本概率由以下两个因素确定：1)一个项目对表面失效发生的影响程度；2)每个项目的每个类别出现故障的频率。将六个模糊集定义为一个目标。为了检验提议的系统是否合适，我们将其应用于一个地区。结果表明，失稳边坡的危险目标可以实现，未失稳边坡的安全目标可以实现。研究结果还表明，地形因素对边坡地表破坏的发生有很大影响。该系统是故障咨询专家系统的原型。另一些专家对原型进行了山坡测试。随着实验结果的增多，对样机进行了改进。在模型中补充了地质因素、人为影响因素和对策因素。在原型系统中，“未知”概率的基本概率因多种因素而发生变化。用改进后的专家系统对不同的边坡进行了检验。指出了今后需要明确的一些问题。这是一个知识库和实地调查方法。在此基础上，利用专家工具构建专家系统，了解影响边坡破坏形态的因素。这些数据是通过对兵库县一条公路沿线的切割、填充和自然斜坡进行实地调查获得的。这些数据由兵库市市政公司收集。利用该工具从区域和地质角度对数据进行了分析。结果表明，在某些地区，“破坏史”因素非常重要，而在另一些地区，“坡面上不稳定的石头”或“表土层的蠕动”因素非常重要。少

An expert system for consulting probable failure of a mountain slope is proposed. PROLOG, an artificial intelligence language was used. The basic probability proposed in the Dempster & Shafer theory was used in order to account for the inaccuracy that accompanies domain-specific knowledge. The basic probabilities were determined with 1)to what degree an item affect the occurrence of surface failure and 2)with what frequency a failure appear for each category of every item. Six fuzzy sets are defined as a goal. To examine weather the proposed system is appropriate, we applied it to an area. Our results show that the dangerous goals are obtainable for failed slopes and the safety goals for non- failed ones. Our results also show that topographical factors greatly influence of the occurrence of surface failure on a mountain slope.This system is a prototype of an expert system for consulting probable failure. The prototype is examined for a mountain slope by some another experts. As the re … More sults, the prototype is modified. Factors of geology, man impacts and countermeasures are supplemented to the model. The basic probability of " probability of "unknown" is changed for many factors in the prototype system. The examination is made with the modified expert system on different mountain slopes. Some problems to be clear in the future are pointed out. These are a knowledge database and a field investigation method.Furthermore, an expert tool which aid to construct an expert system is employed for the purpose to know what factor affect an appearance of a mountain slope failure. The data are obtained by field investigation of cut, filled and natural slopes along a road in Hyogo prefecture. These data are collected by Hyogo municipal corporation. The data were analyzed by using this tool from regional and geological consideration. The results show that a factor of "history of failure" is very important in some districts, however, in another area, "unstable stones on a slope surface" or "creeping of a surface soil layer". Less