A STUDY ON THE TRAINING AND RECRUITMENT OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHER : ESTIMATING THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR TWENTY YEARS INTO THE YEAR 2010

了解科学和学术就业的趋势和行为，对于制定国家高等教育政策具有重要意义。这项研究的目的是用模拟的方式检验日本学生人口的减少、过去的商业萧条和未来的经济活动对日本科学人力需求和供应的影响。在这项研究中，我们主要考察了12个案例，按部门(工业、科研院所和大学)和研究领域(人文和社会科学、物理、工程、农业、卫生和其他)细分：三个案例是高等教育招生((1)最高-(2)多-(3)最低)，两个案例是经济增长(**高-*)，两个案例是新入职的科学研究人员的学校生涯(()SY.enCirclda[)转变为证书制-()SY.enCircldb.[)不随现状变化)。这一预测的结果如下：1)在4种情况下，((3)&**or**&(]SY.encircleda.[)or(]SY.encircledb.[))，将有必要扩大博士课程的规模，比1992年增加1.4至3.6倍，以满足未来对博士学位的需求。2)在另外4种情况下，更多的博士课程毕业生将失业，不再是科学研究人员。然后，直觉部门将在平衡所需的研究人员和现有的博士学位之间发挥重要作用，因为对学术人员的需求将随着学生人数的减少而下降。3)然而，除非大学部门像以前一样雇用更多的研究生，否则全职工作人员的平均年龄将会提高，大学内无法维持高生产率的科学活动。4)然后，我们指出，必须在大学之外建立‘基础研究’之家，或者必须改进或建立新的培训和雇用年轻工作人员的制度。

It is important to understand the trends and behavior of scientific and academic employment in order to shape national higher education policy. The purpose of this study is to examine with simulation the impact of the decrease in the student population and of the business depression in the past and economic activity in future on the demand and supply for scientific manpower in Japan. In this study we examine twelve cases mainly, with breakdown by sectors (industry, research institutes, and university) and by fields of study (humanities and social sciences, physics, engineering, agriculture, health, and the other) : three cases for higher education enrolment((1)maximum-(2)many-(3)minimum) by two for economic growth (**high-**low) and by two for school career of new recruits as scientific researchers ((]SY.encircleda.[) changineg to credentialism-(]SY.encircledb.[) not changing as present condition). The results of this projection are as follows :1) In four cases ((3)&**or**&(]SY.encircleda.[)or(]SY.encircledb.[)), it will be necessarry to expand the the doctoral courses 1.4 to 3.6 times more than in 1992 to meet the future requirements for the Ph.D's.2) In another four cases ((]SY.encircledb.[)&(1)or(2)&**or**), more of the graduates of doctoral courses will be unemployed as scientific researchers. Then, the sector of intustry will play an important role to balance between researchers required and available Ph.D's, for the demand for academic staff will be declined with the decrease in the student population.3) However, unless the university sector employs as many new postgraduate students as ever, the average age of the full-time staff will advance and the highly productive scientific activity cannot be maintained in the universities.4) Then, we point out that the home of 'fundamental research' must be founded outside the university, or that the system to train and to employ the young staff must be improved or newly established.