Economic Analysis of the Regionalism in the World Economy

本研究项目的主要目的是调查全球经济中区域经济一体化趋势的原因和影响。本文的主要研究内容和结论如下：（1）经济一体化的前景如何？目前的主要经济集团，欧盟，北美自由贸易区和自由贸易区，是否会像一些经济学家预测的那样进一步整合为两个超级经济集团？我们的理论分析表明，没有核心组合的两个三个块特别是当三个是大约相同的大小，因此，不稳定的形成超级块将带来。(2)东亚经济体的开放程度是否低于北美自由贸易区和欧盟？我们的计量经济学分析表明，与普遍持有的观点相反，东亚经济体比北美自由贸易区和欧盟更开放。(3)东亚国家是否应该形成一个区域经济集团？我们的分析表明，由于各国经济发展阶段的差异， ...更多信息 尽管如此，区域主义可能对国家本身没有好处。(4)各国能否通过在它们之间形成一个区域经济集团来避免贸易中断的风险？出乎意料的是，答案是模棱两可的，因为一个国家愿意支付的风险溢价与该国的收入水平没有直接关系，进一步的理论分析正在进行中。(5)囤积、保护国内产业和经济一体化是如何相互关联的？我们的分析发展了关于这个问题的各种经济模型。并分析了国际公共物品的存在对经济一体化的影响。(6)国际外部因素是经济一体化中必须考虑的因素。我们的分析表明，认识到互惠和单边外部性之间的差异的重要性。例如，为避免全球变暖而广泛支持的全球碳税的提议是不正确的，因为全球变暖是一个互惠外部性的案例。少

The major objectives of this research project were investigation of the causes and effects of the trend of regional economic integration progressing in the global economy. The subject matters and major findings are the followings :(1) What would be the probable future of economic integration? Would the current major economic blocks, EU,NAFTA and AFTA,be further integrated into two super economic blocks as some economists predict? Our theoretical analysis show that there are no core combination of two out of the three blocks particularly when the three are about equal sizes and, consequently, instability in formation of super-blocks would entail.(2) Is East Asian economies less open than NAFTA and EU? Our econometric analysis shows that contrary to the widely held view, the East Asian economies are more open than NAFTA and EU.(3) Should East Asian countries from a regional economic block? Our analysis shows that because of disparities in the stages of economic development among the coun … More tries involoved, a regionalism may not be profitable to the countries themselves.(4) Could countries avoid risks of trade disruption by forming a regional economic block among themselves? Unexpectedly, the answer is ambiguous.Because the risk premium that a country would be willing to pay is found to be not directly related to the income level of the country.Farther theoretical analysis is being pursued.(5) How do stock piling, protection of domestic industries and economic integration interrelated? Our analysis develops various economic models on this subject. It also analyzes the effects on economic integration of the presence of international public goods.(6) International externalities are factors that must be considered in an economic integration. Our analysis shows that the importance of recognizing the difference between reciprocal and unilateral externalities. For example, the widely supported proposal for the global carbon tax of an equal rate to avoid the global warming is incorrect because the global warming is a case of reciprocal externality. Less