Evaluation of the Systems Risks in the Municipal Solid Waste Management system and Their Reduction

本研究的目的是通过模拟城市生活垃圾管理系统在正常和意外情况下的潜在风险传播，为城市生活垃圾管理系统向风险弹性系统的改进提供量化信息。将日本现行的城市生活垃圾管理系统分为回收再利用型、集约化焚烧型、全垃圾填埋型等类别，获取有效信息，降低系统潜在风险；明确风险因素和风险指标，并通过建立的数学模型对城市生活垃圾的动态特性进行模拟，验证模型的有效性和实用性。长崎暴雨灾害和阪神-旭日大地震被选为个案研究。运用数学模型对灾害固体废物流动/库存进行了分析，讨论了临时固体废物堆放场、临时固体废物粉碎/焚烧厂、纳入资源回收/再利用等减少风险的方案，并对这三年的研究进行了总结，以书面式报告的形式出版。

The purposes of this study is to get the quantitative information for improvement of the municipal solid waste management system to the risk-elastic system by simulating the potential risk propagations through the system under the condition of usual and accidental situations. The present Japanese municipal solid waste management system was classified into catogories, e. g., the recycle and reuse type, intensive incineration type, the all waste landfill type and so on, to get effective information to reduce the potential system's risks.Risk couse factors and risk indices were specified and the dynamic performances of the municipal solid waste was simulated by proposed mathematical model to examine the validity and utility of the model. The Nagasaki Heavy Rain Disaster and the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake were selected for the case studies. Disaster solid wastes flow/stock was analyzed by the mathematical model and those risk reduction options such as temporal solid waste storage yard, eemporal solid waste crush/incineration plant, incorporation of resources recycling/reuse were discussed for their quantitative effectiveness for risk reduction.The study for the these three years was summarized and publishied as the book-style report.