THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE LIBERALIZATION OF THE APEC REGION-THE OPEN REGIONALISM UNDER THE WTO REGIME-

1995年WTO成立后，区域主义与全球主义的关系进入了一个新的阶段。本文将重点研究亚太经合组织区域经济一体化的宏观经济效应。我们还将建立世界计量经济模型来分析这个问题。目前的经济一体化运动始于20世纪80年代，经济学家和政策制定者对这一现象的原因和影响尚未达成共识。解决这一问题的途径主要是从微观经济方面入手，从宏观经济方面入手的较少。本研究的一个特点是运用模型从宏观经济的角度来探讨这一问题。主要结果如下。首先，亚太经合组织内部的自由化将增加亚太经合组织地区乃至世界的经济福利。其次，自由化的好处不会平均分配给有关国家，而是主要分配给发达国家，一些发展中国家可能会因自由化而遭受损失。第三，通过比较APEC地区有条件最惠国待遇和无条件最惠国待遇的宏观经济效应，得出无条件最惠国待遇对世界经济的促进作用更大，对APEC地区外部国家的负面经济影响较小的结论。第四，这一时期自由化对日本经济的影响是有限的。

After establishing the WTO in 1995, the relationship between regionalism and globalism entered into a new stage. In this paper we will focus on the macro-economical effect of economic integration at the APEC region. We also will build the world econometric model for analyzing that issue. The current movement of economic integration had started from the 1980s, and economists and policy makers have not reached a consensus about the causes and effects of that phenomenon. The way of approach to this issue has been mainly from micro-economic aspect, but only a few from macro-economic aspect. A feature of this study is approaching this issue from macro-economic point of view by using the model.Major results are as follows. First, liberalization within APEC region will increase the economic welfare of the APEC region as well as the world as a whole. Secondly, however, the benefit of the liberalization will not be equally distributed to the countries concerned, rather it will be distributed mainly to advanced countries, and some developing countries can suffer losses by the liberalization. Thirdly, by comparing the macro-economic effects of conditional MFN and unconditional MFN in APEC region, we conclude that the latter enhance the world economy more and have less negative economic effects on the outside countries of APEC region. Fourthly, the impact of the liberalization on Japanese economy in that period is limited.