Econometric Studies of International Industrial Restructuring and Competitiveness-focusing on Japan, the US and Asian NIES-

本研究以日本、美国和东亚各国为对象，对1985年秋季广场协议后的国际经济结构调整进行计量分析。为此，我们首先比较了发达国家和亚洲发展中国家的制造业在生产和就业中的作用，发现制造业能力通过外国直接投资向亚洲发展中国家转移的趋势非常明显。第二，我们利用1990年和1995年的国际投入产出表来衡量日本、美国和东亚之间的结构性相互依赖。第三，以泰国为例，构建了一个宏观计量经济模型，评估了发达国家直接投资对泰国经济的影响，证实了直接投资的积极贡献。第四，基于数据包络分析法构建了新加坡和香港的Malmquist生产率指数，比较了两地经济增长的可持续性和竞争力。最后，随着东亚工业化对能源需求的不断增长，我们探讨了东海石油开发的新方向。

In this study we intended to analyze econometrically the international economic restructuring developed after the Plaza agreement in the fall of 1985, focusing on Japan, the Unites States and East Asian economies. For this purpose we, first, compared the role of manufacturing sector in production and employment in the developed countries with that of developing Asia, and found a significant shift of manufacturing capacity to developing Asia through foreign direct investment. Second, we measured structural interdependence among Japan, US and East Asia by using International Input Output Tables of 1990 and 1995. Third, we constructed a macro econometric model of Thailand to assess the impacts on her economy of foreign direct investment from developed countries as a case study, and confirmed the positive contribution of direct investment. Fourth, we constructed Malmquist productivity indexes of Singapore and Hong Kong based on Data Envelopment Analysis and compared the growth sustainability and competitiveness of two economies. Last, with a growing energy demand in East Asian industrialization, we examined a new direction of oil development in the East China Sea.