Theoretical and Empirical Study of Effectiveness of IMF Conditionality in the Economic Reconstruction of the Philippines : Assessment of IMF Conditionality for Asian Crisis

受1997年亚洲金融危机严重损害的国家，如泰国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和韩国，从1999年年中开始迅速恢复经济。然而，自2000年底以来，经济复苏势头减弱，结构性改革似乎有所拖延。在货币基金组织的支持下，除马来西亚外的其他国家都实施了改革，但自2001年初以来，这些国家的立场转变为促进经济而不是改革。在泰国，政府发生了变化，在韩国和印度尼西亚，也有越来越多的运动批评政府。国际货币基金组织指导的改革通常是在与每个国家的政治和经济权力的最佳利益作斗争的情况下实施的。国际货币基金组织（IMF）的条件性贷款必须通过政治力量的平衡来实施，并且会遇到许多障碍，菲律宾在20世纪80年代的经验表明了这一点。本文从国际货币基金组织（IMF）对亚洲金融危机的影响出发，考察了IMF条件性贷款在亚洲金融危机中的有效性 ...更多信息 本文从政治经济学的角度研究了国际货币基金组织对菲律宾经济重建的条件性。首先，作者指出：（1）亚洲金融危机对菲律宾经济的影响相对较小，部分原因是菲律宾进行了金融改革，如加强审慎监管和中央银行改革等;（2）另一方面，国际货币基金组织的紧缩政策在很长一段时间内未能提振菲律宾经济。其次，在菲律宾经济停滞十余年的诸多因素中，有两个重要因素：（1）IMF激进结构改革与国内经济政治力量之间的摩擦;（2）马科斯政权垮台到阿基诺政府诞生的政治不稳定过程，而这与IMF的条件性密切相关。从政治经济学的角度来分析IMF贷款条件的影响，对于亚洲国家今后如何从危机中复苏具有重要意义。少

Countries seriously damaged by the Asian Crisis in 1997 such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Korea had rapidly begun to restore their economies from mid- 1999. However, the recovery becomes to be weakened and the structural reforms seem to delay since the end of 2000. Supported by IMF, the countries except Malaysia had implemented the reforms, however, they shifted their stance for boosting their economies rather than reform since the early 2001. In Thailand there was a change of government, in Korea and Indonesia there are more and more movements to criticize the governments as well. The reforms directed by IMF are usually implemented struggling with the bested interest of political and economic powers in each country. The conditionality of IMF has to be implemented through the political power balance and to be encountered with many impediments, as the Philippines' experiences showed in 1980s.This study examines the effectiveness of IMF conditionality for Asian Crisis, based on t … More he author's study of IMF conditionality for the reconstruction of the Philippine economy in the framework of political economy. First of all, the author indicates that (1) the damage of Asian Crisis was relatively slighter in the Philippines partly due to the financial reform such as tightening prudential regulation and the central bank reform (2) however on the other hand, the IMF tightening policies failed to boost the Philippine economy for a long time. Secondly, among the many factors for the Philippine economic stagnation more than ten-years, there are two important factors : (1) the friction between IMF for radical structural reform and the domestic economic and political powers, and (2) the political instable process from collapse of Marcos regime to the birth of Aquino Government, and these were closely connected to IMF conditionality. It will be more important to analyze the impacts of IMF conditionality through the political economy when we will consider how the Asian countries will recover from the Crisis hereafter. Less