Forest resource use vs. environmental policy ＆ timber trade

研究结果如下：1.定性分析：1)俄罗斯木材进口增加对中国的影响(1)随着市场价格的下降，国有森林经营的财政收支加剧。(2)1999年1月以后，取消对进口木材进口经营权的管制，增加了私营企业/供应商的数量，而不是由中央和地方政府控制的子公司控制的贸易公司的数量。(3)中国人通过密集购买林产品在东西伯利亚贝加尔岛附近砍伐森林。(4)非法采伐和进口的增加2)奥地利对日本出口的增加可能是由于极低的造林成本、采伐成本和运输成本，即21万日元/立方米、2240日元/立方米和5000日元/立方米。和近海，这是木材消费大地区，而它是…木材产区九州、四国、东北弹性较大，国内木材供应价格弹性为0.12-0.32，美国进口原木价格弹性为0.08-0.47，进口木材价格弹性为0.41。2)通过使用JAFSEM V2木材市场模型进行分析，发现进口木材预计将增加7.1%至9.7%，而国内木材供应将被牺牲。这意味着，在局部均衡的背景下，进口木材价格将过低。此外，东北是关东和北陆的主要木材供应商，而中部是四国和近海的主要木材供应商。3)粮农组织数据的平稳性显示，在木材进出口显著减少和增加的时期，价格弹性趋于弹性值。进出口木材数量呈增加趋势，价格弹性值较高的产品包括北美和大洋洲的工业品以及碎屑和刨花板，以及西欧的产品。较少

Results of our research are as follows.I. Qualitative Analysis : 1) Influence of import increase of Russia lumber in China (1) Aggravation of the financial income and expenditure of national forest management along with market price decrease. (2) After January, 1999, deregulation about acquisition of the imported lumber import business right increased the number of private enterprises / suppliers instead of trading companies under the central and a subsidiary of local government control (3) Deforestation in the vicinity of east Siberia Baikal by intensive purchase of forest products by Chinese (4) Increase of illegal harvesting and imports2) Increase of Austrian export to Japan might result from extremely low afforestation costs, harvesting costs and transportation costs, i.e., 210,000 Yen/m3, 2240 Yen/m3 and 5000 Yen/m3.II. Quantitative Analysis1) Price elasticity of lumber demand became around -1.0 in Kanto, Chubu, and Kinki, which are large timber consumption region, while it was fr … More om -0.1 to -0.5 elastic in Kyushu, Shikoku, Tohoku, that are timber producing regions.On the other hand, price elasticity of lumber supply became 0.12 to 0.32 for domestic lumber, 0.08 to 0.47 for lumber produced from US imported logs, and 0.41 for imported lumber. With exception of Chugoku case, the elastitcy of domestic lumber became more inelastic than others in all regions.2) Through the analysis with use of the proposed lumber market model called JAFSEM V2, it was found out that increase in imported lumber would be expected by 7.1 % to 9.7 %, and that domestic lumber supply would be sacrificed. This implies that the import lumber price would be too low within the partial equilibrium context. In addition, Tohoku is a main lumber supplier to Kanto and Hokuriku, while Chugoku is for Shikoku and Kinki.3) Regarding stationarity of FAO data, it was revealed that during such a period with remarkable decrease and increase of lumber import and export, price elasticity tended to show elastic value.A increasing tendency of import and export lumber quantity with high value of price elasticity, appeared for such products as industrial products from North America and Oceania as well as chips and particle boards, and those from western Europe. Less