Investigation of the importance of cognitive abilities for the financial inclusion of households in Kenya

金融包容性，特别是边缘化家庭的包容性，被认为是实现联合国可持续发展目标的一个重要目标。然而，为了减少被排除在经济之外的14亿户家庭的数量，需要更多的科学知识。特别是，认知功能在这一背景下的作用在科学文献中很少受到关注。本项目中的四个研究包可以为理解认知能力与金融包容性之间的关系做出相关贡献。特别是，获得信贷是金融包容性的一个重要支柱。在关于这一主题的文献中，对消费者而言，获得信贷既与减贫等机会有关，也与过度负债等风险有关。然而，据申请人所知，认知功能的作用还没有在这一文献流中被考虑。因此，前两个研究包旨在缩小这些重要的研究差距。第一套研究通过使用中介模型考察了风险厌恶作为认知能力和获得信贷之间潜在关系的一种解释机制的作用。因此，第二个研究包使用回归分析来检验认知能力和贷款违约之间的关系。这些分析的结果为进一步的科学研究奠定了必要的基础。需要进一步研究与数字金融服务(DFS)相关的金融包容性领域。具体地说，DFS是否真的增加了农村家庭的金融包容性的问题仍然没有得到回答。例如，农村地区认知功能系统性较低可能会阻碍DFS的可用性，从而阻碍DFS的使用。因此，本项目的第三个研究包涉及调查外勤部的使用和获取情况如何沿着城乡连续体变化。特别是，角色认知能力需要进行检查。研究还使用了一个中介模型，其中DFS的使用形成了自变量，城乡连续体形成了因变量；认知能力表现出一种解释机制。这项研究与DFS的政策制定者和提供者有直接关系。前述使用DFS的能力和认知功能之间的相关性进一步提出了一个问题，即认知能力是否也缓和了DFS的效果。要回答这个问题，需要估计一个回归模型，其中解释变量是认知能力与DFS使用之间的交互作用，因变量是家庭的消费平滑能力。应估计和比较各种统计方法，如倾向分数匹配或工具变量估计。这些调查的结果对政治决策者具有直接的重要性。

Financial inclusion, especially of marginalized households, is considered an important goal in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, in order to reduce the number of 1.4 billion financially excluded households, further scientific knowledge is required. In particular, the role of cognitive functions in this context has received little attention in the scientific literature. Four research packages in this project can make a relevant contribution to the understanding of the relationship between cognitive abilities and financial inclusion. In particular, access to credit constitutes an important pillar of financial inclusion. In the literature on this topic, access to credit is associated with both opportunities, e.g. poverty reduction, and risks, e.g. over-indebtedness, for consumers. However, to the knowledge of the applicant, the role of cognitive functions has not yet been considered in this literature stream. The first two research packages therefore aim to narrow down these important research gaps. The first research package examines the role of risk aversion as an explanatory mechanism for the potential relationship between cognitive abilities and access to credit by employing a mediational model. The second research package therefore uses regression analyses to examine the relationship between cognitive abilities and loan defaults. The results of these analyses build a necessary foundation for further scientific studies. There is a further need for research in the area of financial inclusion in relation to digital financial services (DFS). Specifically, the question of whether DFS actually increase financial inclusion for rural households remains unanswered. For example, systematically lower cognitive functions in rural areas could hinder the usability of and thus access to DFS. The third research package in this project therefore deals with the investigation of how the use of and access to DFS changes along an urban-rural continuum. In particular, the role cognitive abilities is to be examined. The analysis is also carried out using a mediation model, in which the use of DFS forms the independent variable and the urban-rural continuum the dependent variable; cognitive abilities manifest an explanatory mechanism. This research has direct relevance for policy makers and providers of DFS. The aforementioned correlation between ability to use DFS and cognitive functions further raise the question of whether cognitive abilities also moderate the effects of DFS. To answer this question, a regression model is to be estimated in which the explanatory variable is the interaction between cognitive abilities and the use of DFS and the dependent variable is the consumption smoothing ability of households. Various statistical methods such as propensity score matchings or instrumental variable estimation shall be estimated and compared. The results of these investigations are of direct importance for political decision-makers.