Study on Projection of River Discharge under Global Warming and Adaptation Measures

通过将未来气候预测数据输入分布式降雨-径流模型，分析了气候变化对日本流域河流流量的影响。用日本气象厅气象研究所开发的高分辨率大气环流模式模拟了所用的投影数据。主要研究结果如下：1)观测到了洪峰流量、日流量和月流量的明显变化；2)这种变化的程度因地点不同而不同；3)在21世纪实验结束时，这种变化变得更加明显。

The impact of climate change on river discharge in Japanese basins is analyzed by feeding future climate projection data into a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The projection data used were simulated by a high resolution general circulation model developed by Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency. The main findings are as follows : 1) lear changes of hourly flood peak discharge, daily drought discharge and monthly discharge were detected ; 2) the degree of the changes differs according to location ; 3) the changes become clearer in the end of 21^<st> century experiment.