Epidemics and evolution on the commuter network in metropolitan area

利用一个简单的数学模型分析了东京都市圈内一种传染病在通勤网络上传播的流行动力学。该模型的基础上制定的元人口连接的通勤列车，其中每个人口是相互联系的通勤流量。在此，使用了国土交通省的城市交通普查的实际数据，模拟了通勤者的移动。研究了病原体的传染性和通勤网络结构的影响，得到了以下结果。全球流行的概率和全球流行的最终规模主要由家庭和工作人口规模的联合分布决定，但对网络的地理或拓扑结构不敏感。

Epidemic dynamics of an infectious disease spreading over the commute network in Tokyo metropolitan area is analyzed using a simple mathematical model. The model is formulated based on the meta-population connected by commuter trains where each population is interconnected by commuter flows. Here, the actual data from the Urban Transportation Census(Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) is used to simulate the movements of commuters. The effect of infectiousness of pathogen and the structure of commute network are investigated and the following results are obtained. The probability of global epidemic and the final size of global epidemic are mainly determined by the joint distribution of home and work population sizes, but is insensitive to the geographical or topological structure of the network.